Saturday, January 9, 2016

Predicting games test

As mentioned in an earlier post, on average the rankings will have 90% of the teams you beat will be below you and 90% of the teams you lose to will be above you.  I've decided to take that a step further and remove those 50-50 games and see if that applies to future games as well as past games.

So this is today's test - before any Boys BB final scores come in - try and apply a ranking before the game is played to predict an outcome.  This is a VERY small sample size (44 games), we'll be doing this again in the future to see how it correlates over time.

The closer together they are, the less likely they are to win (rank difference is in parentheses)

Expect about half of these teams to win:

  • Red Rock Central (+8) over Wabasso - won by 18
  • Browerville/Eagle Valley (+11) over Pine River-Backus - won by 27
  • Brooklyn Center (+11) over Minnesota Transitions Charter - won by 34
  • Fulda (+12) over Ellsworth - Lost by 3
Expect 90% of these teams to win:
  • St. Francis (+25) over Andover - won by 5
  • Southwest Christian (+26) over Jordan - Lost by 9
  • Eden Valley-Watkins (+26) over Morris Area/Chokio-Alberta - won by 10
  • Chatfield (+35) over North Branch - Lost by 25
  • Richfield (+36) over Holy Angels - won by 11
  • Virginia (+38) over South Ridge - won by 40
  • Mankato Loyola (+46) over Blooming Prairie - won by 16
  • Mahtomedi (+47) over Hermantown - won by 9
  • Hibbing (+58) over Zimmerman - Lost by 10
  • Holy Family Catholic (+63) over Minneapolis Edison - won by 25
  • Robbinsdale Cooper (+66) over Minneapolis Roosevelt - won by 12
  • Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa (+67) over MACCRAY - won by 8
  • Cretin-Derham Hall (+68) over St. Paul Johnson - won by 18
  • St. Paul Central (+73) over Roseville - Lost by 7
  • Park of Cottage Grove (+80) over Cristo Rey Jesuit - won by 26
  • Warroad (+84) over Wadena-Deer Creek - Lost by 25
  • St. Peter (+87) over Belle Plaine - won by 3
  • Bemidji (+94) over Duluth Denfeld - Lost by 4
  • Pequot Lakes (+103) over Pierz - won by 6
  • New York Mills (+105) over Norman County West
  • Kingsland (+105) over Hope Lutheran
  • Hopkins (+118) over Minneapolis Washburn - won by 32
  • Norwood-Young America (+120) over Legacy Christian
  • Fairmont (+127) over Martin County West - won by 13
  • Goodhue (+128) over Southland - won by 1
  • Hope Academy (+135) over Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg - won by 38
  • Minneapolis North (+138) over Central MN Christian - won by 30
  • New Life Academy (+154) over Lakeview Christian - won by 33
  • Thief River Falls (+157) over Cloquet - won by 11
  • Park Center (+159) over Minneapolis Southwest - won by 47
  • Osseo (+159) over Moorhead - won by 46
  • Blaine (+163) over Cambridge-Isanti - won by 34
  • Canby (+165) over Heron Lake-Okabena - won by 29
  • Totino-Grace (+175) over White Bear Lake - lost by 2
  • Cannon Falls (+187) over Dover-Eyota - won by 20
  • Rochester Lourdes (+188) over Winona Cotter - won by 13
  • Hillcrest Lutheran Academy (+194) over Park Christian - won by 24
  • CHOF (+200) over Bethany Academy - won by 33
  • Crosby-Ironton (+265) over Duluth Marshall - won by 38
  • Mounds View (+299) over MN Academy for the Deaf - won by 35


Monday, December 14, 2015

Boys Basketball QRF Rankings

*NOTE* As hard as we try, not all games have scores reported (or posted correctly) at the time of the QRF Calculation.  Any variances in "Last Week" ranking compared to the previous post are because of corrections or additions after the post to make them correct.



Below are the 12/14/15 rankings and how each team fared during the previous week.

Rank LW Class AAAA QRF    Change
1 1 Shakopee (6-0) 189.0 Beat Rosemount, Eagan, John Marshall 13.5
2 2 Maple Grove (4-0) 180.6 Beat Elk River, Irondale, Wayzata 25.3
3 27 Minnetonka (4-2) 170.1 Beat Chaska, Edina, Cretin-Derham Hall 85.7
4 10 Osseo (6-0) 163.5 Beat Blaine, Park Center, Eden Prairie 41.8
5 2 Apple Valley (6-1) 151.9 Beat Prior Lake, Lakeville South, Lost Hopkins -3.4
6 11 Lakeville North (5-1) 150.8 Beat Lakeville South, Farmington 29.3
7 12 Mounds View (6-0) 146.2 Beat East Ridge, Forest Lake 24.8
8 2 Cretin-Derham Hall (4-1) 144.5 Beat Woodbury, Roseville, Lost Minnetonka -10.8
9 13 Eastview (5-1) 140.6 Beat Eagan, Burnsville 29.2
10 6 Farmington (6-1) 136.9 Beat Burnsville, Lost Lakeville North -2.2

Complete AAAA Boys Basketball Rankings


Rank LW Class AAA QRF    Change
1 12 Fergus Falls (5-0) 134.2 Beat Brainerd, Alexandria 49.2
2 9 Rocori (7-1) 118.9 Beat Alexandria, St. Cloud Tech 31.1
3 4 Red Wing (7-0) 118.6 Beat Albert Lea, Mankato West 3.1
4 3 Austin (4-1) 116.3 Beat Northfield, Lost John Marshall -1.5
5 12 Richfield (4-1) 114.8 Beat Holy Family, Mpls Washburn 29.8
6 2 Delano (7-1) 108.8 Lost Big Lake, Beat Mound Westonka, Concordia -18.9
7 7 Orono (7-1) 106.9 Beat Benilde-SM, Mound Westonka 13.8
8 8 Waconia (6-1) 102.0 Beat Faribault, Blake 9.9
9 5 Totino-Grace (4-1) 101.3 Lost Champlin, Beat Spring Lake Park, Hill-Murray -3.6
10 11 St. Anthony Village (7-0) 100.3 Beat Mpls Edison, Coon Rapids 15.0

Complete AAA Boys Basketball Rankings


Rank LW Class AA QRF    Change
1 2 Perham (4-0) 102.4 Beat Barnesville, Proctor 7.3
2 1 Minnehaha Academy (2-2) 87.6 Beat Washburn, Lost Northfield -12.4
3 5 Esko (5-1) 86.5 Lost Superior, Beat International Falls 11.6
4 4 Melrose (4-0) 86.0 Beat Montevideo 9.2
5 14 Lake City (7-0) 84.6 Beat Kasson-Mantorville, Stewartville 21.5
6 3 St. Croix Lutheran (6-1) 79.4 Lost Mpls North, Beat St. Paul Academy, Braham 2.0
7 13 Jordan (5-1) 79.2 Beat St. Peter, Sibley East 15.6
8 6 Jackson County Central (3-0) 78.0 Beat St. James Area, Redwood Valley 3.2
9 9 Annandale (5-0) 76.7 Beat Eden Valley-Watkins, FAIR School 8.4
10 8 Albany (6-0) 76.6 Beat Milaca, Sauk Centre, Mora 4.3
10 11 St. Charles (7-0) 76.6 Beat Southland 9.6
12 7 Southwest Christian (5-0) 71.6 Beat Trinity, Lester Prairie, Central MN Christian -1.8
13 12 Waterville-Elysian-Morristown (5-1) 69.7 Lost Waseca, Beat United South Central 3.1
14 23 Maple River (5-1) 67.2 Beate Medford, New Richland-H-E-G 11.9
14 16 St. Paul Academy (6-2) 67.2 Beat St. Thomas, Mountain Iron-Buhl, Lost St. Croix 6.0
16 31 Windom Area (4-1) 66.0 Beat Pipestone Area 14.7
17 9 Eden Valley-Watkins (5-1) 64.5 Beat Maple Lake, Paynesville, Lost Annandale -3.8
18 26 St. Cloud Cathedral (4-2) 62.4 Beat Foley, Milaca 9.3
19 38 Watertown-Mayer (5-1) 61.8 Beat HLWW, Maple Lake 16.4
20 24 Caledonia (4-0) 61.6 Beat La Crescent 6.6

Complete AA Boys Basketball Rankings


Rank LW Class A QRF    Change
1 1 Minneapolis North (6-0) 122.9 Beat St. Croix Lutheran, Mpls South, Fridley 18.0
2 10 Minnesota Transitions Charter (3-1) 74.8 Beat St. Croix Prep 19.5
3 2 Rushford-Peterson (4-1) 67.4 Beat Fillmore Central, Goodhue -2.5
4 10 Groves Academy (2-0) 65.0 Beat Hmong Academy 9.7
5 4 West Central Area (5-0) 62.9 Beat Osakis, Royalton 3.0
6 7 Goodhue (4-2) 62.7 Beat Hayfield, Triton, Lost Rushford-Peterson 5.9
7 15 Browerville/Eagle Valley (5-1) 61.5 Beat St. John's Prep, Lost Waseca 9.1
8 12 Red Lake (6-0) 61.2 Beat Stephen-Argyle, BGMR, Cass Lake, FDLO 6.1
9 14 Cristo Rey Jesuit (5-0) 59.6 Beat Legacy Christian 5.5
10 13 Mountain Iron-Buhl (4-1) 59.1 Beat Eveleth-Gilbert, Lost St. Paul Academy 4.2
11 8 CHOF (6-0) 58.2 Beat Nova Classical, Community of Peace 1.7
12 26 Nevis (6-0) 54.0 Beat Blackduck, Northland 9.0
13 21 Battle Lake (5-0) 53.8 Beat Parkers Prairie, Underwood 5.4
13 31 Cleveland (7-0) 53.8 Beat Bethlehem Academy, T/ML/GHEC 9.8
15 32 Houston (6-0) 52.9 Beat Lanesboro, Lyle/Austin Pacelli 9.6
16 25 Minnesota Valley Lutheran (5-0) 51.8 Beat Buffalo Lake-Hector-Stewart, AZ Lutheran 4.5
17 4 Pine River-Backus (3-1) 51.7 Lost Walker-Hackensack-Akeley, Beat Northome -8.2
18 21 Hillcrest Lutheran Academy (5-0) 51.1 Beat C-G-B, Waubun 2.7
19 26 North Woods (6-0) 50.6 Beat Bigfork, FDLO 5.6
20 26 Spring Grove (5-0) 50.4 Beat Schaeffer Academy 5.4

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