Class A Playoff Scenarios

Section 1A

Scenarios:

• This one is tough to handicap because there are four very good teams that are all close together.
• It appears Fillmore Central has the edge for #1, but Southland could make that close with a win over Caledonia.
• Blooming Prairie and Goodhue are both ready to pass them if Southland falls.
• Rushford-Peterson and Kingsland play each other – the winner will be #5 unless Bethlehem beats BP.  The loser is probably 7, with Bethlehem staying at 6 with a loss.
• Medford and Wabasha-Kellogg both have winnable games – if both win and Rushford loses it will be close for the 7-8-9 spots.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Fillmore Central over Chatfield
• Caledonia over Southland
• Goodhue over Winona Cotter
• Blooming Prairie over Bethlehem Academy
• Kingsland over Rushford-Peterson
• St. Charles over Wabasha-Kellogg
• Medford over Randolph

1. Fillmore Central
2. Blooming Prairie
3. Goodhue
4. Southland
5. Kingsland
6. Bethlehem Academy
7. Rushford-Peterson
8. Medford
9. Wabasha-Kellogg

Section 3A

Scenarios:

• Adrian is favored in their final game and should hold onto the #1 seed.
• Martin County West has the toughest opponent (WEM), if they win that could vault them to #2.
• If MCW loses, the winner of MLBO/Wabasso will be 2.  Also, if Springfield wins they could catch MCW.
• There is a lot of fluidity in the section, as the teams are fairly close together and play other teams that have similar records (like RRC vs SESM and MCC vs TMB).
• Southwestern United is locked into the #8 seed.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Adrian over Canby
• MLBO vs Wabasso (pickem)
• Waterville-Elysian-Morristown over Martin County West
• Springfield over Buffalo Lake-Hector-Stewart
• Tracy-Milroy-Balaton over Murray County Central
• Southwestern United over Cedar Mountain/Comfrey

1. Adrian
2. Wabasso
3. Mt. Lake/Butterfield-Odin
4. Springfield
5. Martin County West
6. Red Rock Central
7. Murray County Central
8. Southwestern United

Section 4A

Scenarios:

• Let’s assume ACGC and Royalton win their games against winless teams.  There are then two big games in this Section, BBE vs Kimball and Le Center vs Lester Prairie
• If BBE and Le Center win:
• Le Center | Kimball | Royalton | LP | BBE | ACGC | North
• If BBE and Lester Prairie win:
• LP | Kimball | Le Center | Royalton | BBE | ACGC | North
• If Kimball and Le Center win:
• Le Center | Kimball | Royalton | LP | ACGC | BBE | North
• If Kimball and Lester Prairie win:
• Kimball | LP | Le Center | Royalton | ACGC | BBE | North
• The above assumes the same number of wins for their opponents in Week 8.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• See Above

Section 5A

Scenarios:

• If everything goes according to plan in Week 8 – these standings should stay about the same.  BLHS vs Springfield is a swing game, a win for BLHS could move them all the way up to #4. 
• If Minneota beats Montevideo, that would vault them up to #1 past Dawson-Boyd.
• If KMS beats USA, they could move to number four as well.
• Lakeview could move ahead of Ortonville with a win and an Ortonville loss.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Dawson-Boyd over Renville County West
• Montevideo over Minneota
• MACCRAY over Russell-Tyler-Ruthton
• Upsala/Swanville Area over Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg
• Springfield over Buffalo Lake-Hector
• Canby over Adrian
• Brandon/Evansville over Ortonville
• Fulda over Lakeview

1. Dawson-Boyd
2. Minneota/Lincoln HI
3. MACCRAY
4. Russell-Tyler-Ruthton
5. Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg
6. Buffalo Lake-Hector
7. Canby
8. Ortonville
9. Lakeview

Section 6A

Scenarios:

• Mahnomen is safe at #1
• Browerville plays 6-1 Osakis (AA) – a win would get them close to Mahnomen but probably not over the top.  A lose and Pillager win over LPA would put Pillager in 2 and Browerville 3.
• LPA win over Pillager sneaks them barely past the Huskies.
• Mahnomen | Browerville | Pillager | Lake Park-Audubon will be hosting week 1.
• Ottertail Central, Pine River-Backus have winnable games – if both win or both lose, OTC has the advantage.  If that doesn’t happen, whoever wins should be 6 and whoever loses should be 7.
• New York Mills is 8^th unless they beat Barnesville.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Mahnomen over Red Lake County
• Browerville vs Osakis (pickem)
• Pillager vs Lake Park-Audubon (pickem)
• Ottertail Central over Long Prairie-Grey Eagle
• Pine River-Backus over Lake of the Woods
• West Central Area vs United North Central (pickem)
• Barnesville over New York Mills

1. Mahnomen
2. Browerville
3. Pillager
4. Lake Park-Audubon
5. Ottertail Central
6. Pine River-Backus
7. West Central Area
8. New York Mills

Section 7A

Scenarios:

• Braham is lock at #1
• Deer River is lock at #2
• Cook County looks safe at #3 with a win
• Ogilvie is at least #4 with a win
• Barnum is a lock at #5
• East Central and Mesabi East are battling for 6-7….East Central wno head to head, but Mesabi East has two other wins.  Will be close.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Braham over Rush City
• Cook County over Chisholm
• Ogilvie over Mesabi East
• East Central vs Ely (pickem)

1. Braham
2. Deer River
3. Cook County
4. Ogilvie
5. Barnum
6. East Central
7. Mesabi East

Section 8A

Scenarios:

• Fertile-Beltrami is a lock at #1
• Warren is a lock at #2
• This is where it gets more interesting.  Red Lake County is a big underdog to Mahnomen.  Cass Lake-Bena and Lake of the Woods have winnable games, and the Northern Freeze have already won.  If either CLB or LOW win they would move past Red Lake County.
• If both CLB and LOW lose, it’s possible for the Northern Freeze to pass them into 4^th.  Again, if either of them lose, the Northern Freeze will probably pass them (although it will be more difficult to pass CLB).

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Fertile-Beltrami over Frazee
• Warren-Alvarado-Oslo over Fosston
• Mahnomen over Red Lake County
• Cass Lake-Bena over Walker-Hackensack-Akeley
• Pine River-Backus over Lake of the Woods
• Northern Freeze beat Climax/Fisher
• Bagley over Blackduck

1. Fertile-Beltrami
2. Warren-Alvarado-Oslo
3. Cass Lake-Bena
4. Red Lake County
5. Northern Freeze
6. Lake of the Woods
7. Fosston
8. Blackduck

Class AA Playoff Scenarios

Section 1AA

Scenarios:

• Caledonia is locked in at #1
• Zumbrota – win and stay in #2 – lose and Chatfield win, Chatfield to #2. 
• If both lose – Lewiston might be able to catch up.  Remember, the QRF is an average of all games played and all of Lewiston’s opponents are playing this week, so it is possible for them to go up in the QRF because their wins vs previous opponents “just got better”.
• 5-8 – win and move up, lose and move down.  If all four lose, expect the order to be: Pine Island | St. Charles | Dover-Eyota | Winona Cotter (but the last two are close).

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Caledonia over Southland
• Lake City over Zumbrota-Mazeppa
• Fillmore Central over Chatfield
• Cannon Falls over Pine Island
• St. Charles over Wabasha-Kellogg
• Goodhue over Winona Cotter
• Plainview-Elgin-Millville over Dover-Eyota

1. Caledonia
2. Zumbrota-Mazeppa
3. Chatfield
4. Lewiston-Altura
5. St. Charles
6. Pine Island
7. Dover-Eyota
8. Winona-Cotter

 Section 2AA

Scenarios:

• Interesting scenario – LeSueur-Henderson plays four AAA teams, W-E-M plays four A teams…this difference has made up for L-H’s lone loss of the season (to an undefeated Norwood-Young America).  If both win this week, and both have difficult games, LeSueur-Henderson will stay number 1.  W-E_M needs L-H to lose and them to win to be #1.  Those two are top 2 locks.
• Triton win and they will be #3.
• Montgomery-Lonsdale win and they are probably #4 as Kenyon and NRHEG both have difficult games.  However if either of them win they will pass M-L.   M-L. lose and Kenyon could pass them regardless of how they do.
• Hayfiled locked in #7

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• LeSueur-Henderson vs Belle Plaine (pickem)
• Waterville-Elysian-Morristown over Martin County West
• Triton over Hayfield
• Montgomery-Lonsdale vs Watertown-Mayer (pickem)
• Byron over Kenyon-Wanamingo
• Maple River over New Richland-H-E-G

1. LeSueur-Henderson
2. Waterville-Elysian-Morristown
3. Triton
4. Kenyon-Wanamingo
5. Montgomery-Lonsdale
6. New Richland-H-E-G
7. Hayfield

 Section 3AA

Scenarios:

• JCC and Blue Earth are too close to call.  Both play winless AA teams this week, so no advantage to either.  It will all depend on how their previous opponents do on Wednesday night to strengthen their already played schedule.
• If Maple River beats NRHEG, they will probably jump into 3^rd past Luverne, who is a big underdog vs Marshall.  If Maple River loses, Luverne will be 3 and Maple River 4.
• TMB is fairly safe in #5, see Pipestone below.
• If all 3 zero win teams (in the QRF eyes, Windom’s win isn’t part of the calculation because of the forfeit) lose – it looks like the order will be Windom | Pipestone | St. James.  Of the three, Pipestone has the best chance to win this week, and it is possible if they do, to pass a 2-6 TMB team.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Jackson County Central over Windom
• Blue Earth Area over St. James
• Marshall over Luverne
• Maple River over New Richland-H-E-G
• Tracy-Milroy-Balaton over Murray County Central
• Madison over Pipestone

1. JCC/BEA
2. BEA/JCC
3. Maple River
4. Luverne
5. Tracy-Milroy-Balaton
6. Windom Area
7. Pipestone Area
8. St. James

 Section 4AA

Scenarios:

• Norwood-Young America is a lock at #1
• Mayer Lutheran a 99% lock at #2
• Maple Lake and HLWW play each other – winner will be #3 unless Edison beats Harding.  An Edison win moves them to 3 and the others slide down one.
• Sibley East can move past HLWW even with a loss since they will lose to a better team this week.
• So if Edison wins, they are #3
• If Edison loses, winner of Maple Lake/HLWW is 3 (Edison is 4 or 5).
• If Maple Lake loses, they slide to 4.
• If HLWW loses, they slide to 6 behind Sibley East.
• Brooklyn Center looks headed for 7.
• St. Agnes appears safely to be at 8
• Humboldt and Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop will not make the playoffs.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Norwood-Young America over Sibley East
• Mayer Lutheran over Jordan
• Maple Lake over Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted
• St. Paul Harding over Minneapolis Edison
• St. Croix Lutheran over Brooklyn Center
• St. Anthony Village over St. Agnes
• Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial over Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop

1. Norwood-Young America
2. Mayer Lutheran
3. Maple Lake
4. Minneapolis Edison
5. Sibley East
6. Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted
7. Brooklyn Center
8. St. Agnes
9. St. Paul Humboldt
10. Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop

 Section 5AA

Scenarios:

• This one seems fairly cut and dried, which makes me nervous posting that.
• All of the games have favorites, no real “pickems” or anything that should sway one way or the other.
• So without much explaining necessary, the “most likely outcome” below would provide the below that seeds.  If any of these don’t go as planned, it will shake things up a bit.

• Most likely outcome (no upsets):
• BOLD over Morris Area
• Eden Valley-Watkins over Rockford
• Paynesville over Lac qui Parle Valley
• Benson over Yellow Medicine East
• Atwater-Cosmos-Grove City over Minnewaska Area

1. BOLD
2. Eden Valley-Watkins
3. Paynesville Area
4. Benson
5. Morris Area/Chokio-Alberta
6. Lac qui Parle Valley
7. Minnewaska Area
8. Yellow Medicine East

Section 6AA

Scenarios:

• Pierz is a solid #1.
• Osakis is interesting – they play a 6-1 Browerville (A) team.  Win and stay number 2…lose and probably stay number 2.
• Breckenridge and USA are favorites and should stay 3-4.
• A Holdingford loss to Pierz opens the door for LPGE to take #5 if they beat OTC.
• Sauk Centre needs losses by Holdingford and LPGE to have hopes of getting to 5, if they beat Melrose they probably can’t get higher than 6.
• Wadena will be travelling to Pierz next Tuesday.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Pierz over Holdingford
• Osakis vs Browerville (pickem)
• Breckenridge over Staples-Motley
• Upsala/Swanville Area over Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg
• Ottertail Central over Long Prairie-Grey Eagle
• Melrose over Sauk Centre
• Royalton over Wadena-Deer Creek

1. Pierz
2. Osakis
3. Breckenridge
4. Upsala/Swanville Area
5. Holdingford
6. Long Prairie-Grey Eagle
7. Sauk Centre
8. Wadena-Deer Creek

Section 7AA

Scenarios:

• MLWR is solid number 1.
• Hinckley-Finlayson about 99% solid at number 2.  Two Harbors/Aitkin would need to win and get A LOT of help.  Virtual lock on number 2.
• If Two Harbors and Aitkin both win, they are in a virtual tie for the third spot.  It will all depend on what their previous opponents do to help enhance their resumes.  Because Aitkin won the head to head, they have the slight edge (they’ll get more points for TH winning this week than Aitkin will get if TH wins).
• If Crosby beats Aitkin, Two Harbors is safe at #3 and Crosby gets 4 with Aitkin 5.
• On to the 6-7-8 winless teams.  If all lose….it favors Rush City, with Duluth Marshall and Eveleth-Gilbert very close in deciding who plays MLWR and who plays Hinckley-Finlayson.  But if all three lose, it’s kind of a crap shoot as to where everyone will end up.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Moose Lake-Willow River over Esko
• Pine City over Hinckley-Finlayson
• Two Harbors over Duluth Marshall
• Aitkin vs Crosby-Ironton (pickem)
• Braham over Rush City
• Hermantown over Eveleth-Gilbert

1. Moose Lake-Willow River
2. Hinckley-Finlayson
3. Aitkin/Two Harbors
4. Two Harbors/Crosby-Ironton
5. Crosby-Ironton/Aitkin
6. Rush City
7. Duluth Marshall
8. Eveleth-Gilbert

Section 8AA

Scenarios:

• Hawley and Barnesville stay 1-2 if they both win.  Barnesville can pass Hawley if the Nuggets lose to Warroad.
• Warroad locked in at number 3.
• DGF should stay ahead of Bagley if both win because Bagley plays 6 Class A schools, and only one of them is above 500.  Neither of their AA opponents are above 500 either.  However if Pelican Rapids upsets DGF, Bagley gets the home game vs DGF.  Both are locked into 4 and 5.
• Frazee and Pelican Rapids have tough but not shocking if they win games.  However UNC plays a two win West Central Area and would sneak ahead of Pelican Rapids with a win, and possibly Frazee too.
• Walker will be on the outside looking in regardless of their outcome vs. Cass Lake.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Hawley over Warroad
• Barnesville over New York Mills
• Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton over Pelican Rapids
• Bagley over Blackduck
• Fertile-Beltrami over Frazee
• West Central Area over United North Central

1. Hawley
2. Barnesville
3. Warroad
4. Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton
5. Bagley
6. Frazee
7. Pelican Rapids
8. United North Central
9. Walker-Hackensack-Akeley

Class AAA Playoff Scenarios

Section 2AAA

Scenarios:

• Holy Family is a fairly safe #1 with a very winnable game vs. Denfeld.
• Washburn is very safe to get at least the #2
• Belle Plaine win or Waseca loss and BP is #3.
• Belle Plaine loss and Waseca win moves Waseca to #3.
• 5-6-7 is win and move up – lose and possibly fall.  All three win or all three lose and the order should stay Highland Park | Richfield | St. Peter.
• Jordan locked at #8

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Holy Family Catholic over Jordan
• Minneapolis Washburn over St. Paul Central
• Belle Plaine vs LeSueur-Henderson (pickem)
• Waseca over St. Peter
• St. Paul Highland Park over Minneapolis Henry
• Simley over Richfield
• Mayer Lutheran over Jordan

1. Holy Family Catholic
2. Minneapolis Washburn
3. Belle Plaine/Holy Family Acad
4. Waseca
5. St. Paul Highland Park
6. Richfield
7. St. Peter
8. Jordan

 Section 3AAA

Scenarios:

• Logjam at the top
• Everything hinges on the Glencoe-Silver Lake/Delano game.  If GSL wins, they will be number 1.  If they lose and both Fairmont and Monte win, GSL falls to 3.  Main reason is GSL’s 6 wins are over teams either 2-5 or 3-4.  Nobody over .500.  These three will be 1-2-3 in some order.
• Logjam in the middle
• AND everybody except New Ulm is a pickem game.
• If Dassel beats Annandale, they will be fighting with the Redwood Valley/Worthington winner to host the 4-5 matchup.
• Watertown-Mayer win could push them up to as high as 6 depending on who the other losers are.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Fairmont over New Ulm
• Glencoe-Silver Lake vs Delano (pickem)
• Montevideo over Minneota/Lincoln HI
• Dassel-Cokato over Annandale
• Worthington vs Redwood Valley (pickem)
• Watertown-Mayer over Montgomery-Lonsdale

1. Fairmont/Glencoe-Silver Lake
2. Montevideo/Fairmont
3. Glencoe-Silver Lake/Montevideo
4. Dassel-Cokato
5. Worthington/Redwood Valley
6. Worthington/Redwood Valley/Watertown-Mayer
7. Worthington/Redwood Valley/Watertown-Mayer
8. New Ulm

Section 4AAA

Scenarios:

• St. Croix Lutheran is safe at #1
• St. Anthony Village should be ok at #2.  St. Paul Johnson drew Mlps Southwest in the Twin Cities game – beating a 4 win AAAAA team is worth quite a bit, but it doesn’t look like it will be quite enough to push past St. Anthony.
• They can push past Concordia into 3^rd, however.  But if Johnson loses to Southwest they are more than likely headed to the 4 seed.
• If Minnehaha beats DeLaSalle they can get past a losing Johnson into 4^th, probably not catch Concordia but it is fairly close.
• New Life is safe at 6, Como Park at 7 and SPA/MPA at 8

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• St. Croix Lutheran over Brooklyn Center
• St. Anthony Village over St. Agnes
• Concordia Academy over New Life Academy
• Minneapolis Southwest over St. Paul Johnson
• DeLaSalle over Minnehaha Academy
• St. Paul Como Park over Minneapolis North
• Providence Academy over SPA/MPA

1. St. Croix Lutheran
2. St. Anthony Village
3. Concordia Academy-Roseville
4. St. Paul Johnson
5. Minnehaha Academy
6. New Life Academy
7. St. Paul Como Park
8. St. Paul Academy/Mounds Park Academy

Section 5AAA

Scenarios:

• DeLaSalle is #1
• Providence Academy is #2
• Breck/Blake/Rockford/Henry
• Breck win and they are #3 – Rockford/Henry can move past Blake if they win.
• Blake win, and Rockford/Henry win – all four teams could be 3-4-5-6. (and will play each other in some form in the first round).
• Columbia Heights is locked in at #7.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• DeLaSalle over Minnehaha Academy
• Providence Academy over SPA/MPA
• Breck over Blake
• Eden Valley-Watkins over Rockford
• St. Paul Highland Park over Minneapolis Henry

1. DeLaSalle
2. Providence Academy
3. Breck
4. Blake
5. Rockford
6. Minneapolis Henry
7. Columbia Heights

 

Section 6AAA

Scenarios:

• A lot of even games this week, which is making the scenarios more difficult to decipher.
• St. Cloud Cathedral can pass Zimmerman if they both win because Zimmerman is playing a zero win team and Cathedral is playing a 6-win AAAA team.  But it will be close.
• Winner of NLS and Albany will be ahead of the other one, and could get close to/pass Cathedral if they lose to Rocori.
• Loser of NLS/Albany needs to be worried about getting passed by Foley.
• Litchfield is 6 with a win.
• Annandale can slide into 6 with a win and Litchfield loss….Melrose is locked into 8.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Zimmerman over Princeton
• St. Cloud Cathedral vs Rocori (pickem)
• New London-Spicer vs Albany (pickem)
• Foley over Mora
• Litchfield over Orono
• Annandale vs Dassel-Cokato (pickem)
• Melrose vs Sauk Centre (pickem)

1. Too many pickems to give an opinion on the final results

 

Section 7AAA

Scenarios:

• With a win, Greenway should stay in number 1
• With a win, Pine City should stay in number 2
• Proctor/Virginia winner should be number 3
• Proctor/Virginia loser should be number 4, unless Esko or Mora win.
• Esko and Mora lose, Esko at 5, Mora and Cloquet close for 6-7 if Cloquet wins.
• Cloquet/International Falls need to win or hope Milaca loses, Milaca win and they will probably make it in.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Greenway over International Falls
• Pine City over Hinckley-Finlayson
• Proctor vs  Virginia (pickem)
• Moose Lake-Willow River over Esko
• Foley over Mora
• Cloquet over Hibbing
• Little Falls over Milaca

1. Greenway
2. Pine City
3. Proctor/Virginia
4. Virginia/Proctor
5. Esko
6. Mora
7. Cloquet
8. International Falls
9. Milaca

Section 8AAA

Scenarios:

• This is another Section where teams are beating each other which makes them close together in the standings.
• Pequot Lakes wins and they are #1
• Thief River Falls wins and a logjam is created with PL/TRF and Perham.  Perham win over EGF appears to give them a slight edge.  Too close to call.  These three teams will be 1-2-3 no matter what.
• If EGF can beat Perham, they will lock up #4.  If not, they need Roseau to beat Park Rapids to get #4.
• Park Rapids win over Pequot Lakes in week 4 is holding them up high in the QRF.  If they beat Roseau they will be 4 will EGF loss, 5 with EGF win.
• Roseau win pushes them ahead of Crookston, as Crookston will be an underdog to Detroit Lakes.
• Staples needs help to get out of #8.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Pequot Lakes vs Thief River Falls (pickem)
• Perham over East Grand Forks
• Park Rapids vs Roseau (pickem)
• Detroit Lakes over Crookston
• Breckenridge over Staples-Motley

1. PL/TRF/Perham
2. PL/TRF/Perham
3. PL/TRF/Perham
4. East Grand Forks
5. Park Rapids Area
6. Roseau
7. Crookston
8. Staples-Motley