Tuesday, October 15, 2013

How the QRF goes up and down...

This question comes up every year - Team A lost to an average team and their QRF goes up.  Team B lost to a good team and their QRF goes down.  This math does not make sense!

On the surface, you're absolutely right!  But as with most things in math, it's all about how you present the results. :)

Take this case in point.  A lot of people that use the QRF are coaches and teachers or administrators so lets put this in terms of the Classroom.

Student A is a good student, after taking 6 tests he/she has an average score of 77.
Student B is a not good student, after taking 6 tests he/she has an average score of only 17.

Now the 7th test comes and goes, Student A does worse than he/she normally does and only scores a 51.  Student B (still a not good student) does worse again and only gets a 39.

So in this case, Student A did better on this specific 7th test than Student B, but what does their final grade show?  Student A's average score drops to 73, while Student B's goes up to 20!

This exact scenario happened in 2013 Week 7 football.  St. Cloud Tech (Student A) lost to 5-1 St. Cloud Apollo, while Sauk Rapids-Rice (Student B) lost to 3-3 Sartell-St. Stephen.

On the surface, the Tech loss should get them more points in the QRF, and it does (51-39).  However, because the QRF shown online is an AVERAGE for all games played, Tech's overall QRF dropped from 77-73, while Sauk Rapids-Rice's went up from 17-20.

So it looks like the QRF is giving more value for a worse loss, when in reality whether these two teams go up and down is based on their own individual results throughout the season and not compared to specific results that week for other teams.