Class AA Playoff Scenarios

Section 1AA

Scenarios:

• Caledonia is locked in at #1
• Zumbrota – win and stay in #2 – lose and Chatfield win, Chatfield to #2. 
• If both lose – Lewiston might be able to catch up.  Remember, the QRF is an average of all games played and all of Lewiston’s opponents are playing this week, so it is possible for them to go up in the QRF because their wins vs previous opponents “just got better”.
• 5-8 – win and move up, lose and move down.  If all four lose, expect the order to be: Pine Island | St. Charles | Dover-Eyota | Winona Cotter (but the last two are close).

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Caledonia over Southland
• Lake City over Zumbrota-Mazeppa
• Fillmore Central over Chatfield
• Cannon Falls over Pine Island
• St. Charles over Wabasha-Kellogg
• Goodhue over Winona Cotter
• Plainview-Elgin-Millville over Dover-Eyota

1. Caledonia
2. Zumbrota-Mazeppa
3. Chatfield
4. Lewiston-Altura
5. St. Charles
6. Pine Island
7. Dover-Eyota
8. Winona-Cotter

 Section 2AA

Scenarios:

• Interesting scenario – LeSueur-Henderson plays four AAA teams, W-E-M plays four A teams…this difference has made up for L-H’s lone loss of the season (to an undefeated Norwood-Young America).  If both win this week, and both have difficult games, LeSueur-Henderson will stay number 1.  W-E_M needs L-H to lose and them to win to be #1.  Those two are top 2 locks.
• Triton win and they will be #3.
• Montgomery-Lonsdale win and they are probably #4 as Kenyon and NRHEG both have difficult games.  However if either of them win they will pass M-L.   M-L. lose and Kenyon could pass them regardless of how they do.
• Hayfiled locked in #7

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• LeSueur-Henderson vs Belle Plaine (pickem)
• Waterville-Elysian-Morristown over Martin County West
• Triton over Hayfield
• Montgomery-Lonsdale vs Watertown-Mayer (pickem)
• Byron over Kenyon-Wanamingo
• Maple River over New Richland-H-E-G

1. LeSueur-Henderson
2. Waterville-Elysian-Morristown
3. Triton
4. Kenyon-Wanamingo
5. Montgomery-Lonsdale
6. New Richland-H-E-G
7. Hayfield

 Section 3AA

Scenarios:

• JCC and Blue Earth are too close to call.  Both play winless AA teams this week, so no advantage to either.  It will all depend on how their previous opponents do on Wednesday night to strengthen their already played schedule.
• If Maple River beats NRHEG, they will probably jump into 3^rd past Luverne, who is a big underdog vs Marshall.  If Maple River loses, Luverne will be 3 and Maple River 4.
• TMB is fairly safe in #5, see Pipestone below.
• If all 3 zero win teams (in the QRF eyes, Windom’s win isn’t part of the calculation because of the forfeit) lose – it looks like the order will be Windom | Pipestone | St. James.  Of the three, Pipestone has the best chance to win this week, and it is possible if they do, to pass a 2-6 TMB team.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Jackson County Central over Windom
• Blue Earth Area over St. James
• Marshall over Luverne
• Maple River over New Richland-H-E-G
• Tracy-Milroy-Balaton over Murray County Central
• Madison over Pipestone

1. JCC/BEA
2. BEA/JCC
3. Maple River
4. Luverne
5. Tracy-Milroy-Balaton
6. Windom Area
7. Pipestone Area
8. St. James

 Section 4AA

Scenarios:

• Norwood-Young America is a lock at #1
• Mayer Lutheran a 99% lock at #2
• Maple Lake and HLWW play each other – winner will be #3 unless Edison beats Harding.  An Edison win moves them to 3 and the others slide down one.
• Sibley East can move past HLWW even with a loss since they will lose to a better team this week.
• So if Edison wins, they are #3
• If Edison loses, winner of Maple Lake/HLWW is 3 (Edison is 4 or 5).
• If Maple Lake loses, they slide to 4.
• If HLWW loses, they slide to 6 behind Sibley East.
• Brooklyn Center looks headed for 7.
• St. Agnes appears safely to be at 8
• Humboldt and Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop will not make the playoffs.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Norwood-Young America over Sibley East
• Mayer Lutheran over Jordan
• Maple Lake over Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted
• St. Paul Harding over Minneapolis Edison
• St. Croix Lutheran over Brooklyn Center
• St. Anthony Village over St. Agnes
• Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial over Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop

1. Norwood-Young America
2. Mayer Lutheran
3. Maple Lake
4. Minneapolis Edison
5. Sibley East
6. Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted
7. Brooklyn Center
8. St. Agnes
9. St. Paul Humboldt
10. Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop

 Section 5AA

Scenarios:

• This one seems fairly cut and dried, which makes me nervous posting that.
• All of the games have favorites, no real “pickems” or anything that should sway one way or the other.
• So without much explaining necessary, the “most likely outcome” below would provide the below that seeds.  If any of these don’t go as planned, it will shake things up a bit.

• Most likely outcome (no upsets):
• BOLD over Morris Area
• Eden Valley-Watkins over Rockford
• Paynesville over Lac qui Parle Valley
• Benson over Yellow Medicine East
• Atwater-Cosmos-Grove City over Minnewaska Area

1. BOLD
2. Eden Valley-Watkins
3. Paynesville Area
4. Benson
5. Morris Area/Chokio-Alberta
6. Lac qui Parle Valley
7. Minnewaska Area
8. Yellow Medicine East

Section 6AA

Scenarios:

• Pierz is a solid #1.
• Osakis is interesting – they play a 6-1 Browerville (A) team.  Win and stay number 2…lose and probably stay number 2.
• Breckenridge and USA are favorites and should stay 3-4.
• A Holdingford loss to Pierz opens the door for LPGE to take #5 if they beat OTC.
• Sauk Centre needs losses by Holdingford and LPGE to have hopes of getting to 5, if they beat Melrose they probably can’t get higher than 6.
• Wadena will be travelling to Pierz next Tuesday.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Pierz over Holdingford
• Osakis vs Browerville (pickem)
• Breckenridge over Staples-Motley
• Upsala/Swanville Area over Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg
• Ottertail Central over Long Prairie-Grey Eagle
• Melrose over Sauk Centre
• Royalton over Wadena-Deer Creek

1. Pierz
2. Osakis
3. Breckenridge
4. Upsala/Swanville Area
5. Holdingford
6. Long Prairie-Grey Eagle
7. Sauk Centre
8. Wadena-Deer Creek

Section 7AA

Scenarios:

• MLWR is solid number 1.
• Hinckley-Finlayson about 99% solid at number 2.  Two Harbors/Aitkin would need to win and get A LOT of help.  Virtual lock on number 2.
• If Two Harbors and Aitkin both win, they are in a virtual tie for the third spot.  It will all depend on what their previous opponents do to help enhance their resumes.  Because Aitkin won the head to head, they have the slight edge (they’ll get more points for TH winning this week than Aitkin will get if TH wins).
• If Crosby beats Aitkin, Two Harbors is safe at #3 and Crosby gets 4 with Aitkin 5.
• On to the 6-7-8 winless teams.  If all lose….it favors Rush City, with Duluth Marshall and Eveleth-Gilbert very close in deciding who plays MLWR and who plays Hinckley-Finlayson.  But if all three lose, it’s kind of a crap shoot as to where everyone will end up.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Moose Lake-Willow River over Esko
• Pine City over Hinckley-Finlayson
• Two Harbors over Duluth Marshall
• Aitkin vs Crosby-Ironton (pickem)
• Braham over Rush City
• Hermantown over Eveleth-Gilbert

1. Moose Lake-Willow River
2. Hinckley-Finlayson
3. Aitkin/Two Harbors
4. Two Harbors/Crosby-Ironton
5. Crosby-Ironton/Aitkin
6. Rush City
7. Duluth Marshall
8. Eveleth-Gilbert

Section 8AA

Scenarios:

• Hawley and Barnesville stay 1-2 if they both win.  Barnesville can pass Hawley if the Nuggets lose to Warroad.
• Warroad locked in at number 3.
• DGF should stay ahead of Bagley if both win because Bagley plays 6 Class A schools, and only one of them is above 500.  Neither of their AA opponents are above 500 either.  However if Pelican Rapids upsets DGF, Bagley gets the home game vs DGF.  Both are locked into 4 and 5.
• Frazee and Pelican Rapids have tough but not shocking if they win games.  However UNC plays a two win West Central Area and would sneak ahead of Pelican Rapids with a win, and possibly Frazee too.
• Walker will be on the outside looking in regardless of their outcome vs. Cass Lake.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Hawley over Warroad
• Barnesville over New York Mills
• Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton over Pelican Rapids
• Bagley over Blackduck
• Fertile-Beltrami over Frazee
• West Central Area over United North Central

1. Hawley
2. Barnesville
3. Warroad
4. Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton
5. Bagley
6. Frazee
7. Pelican Rapids
8. United North Central
9. Walker-Hackensack-Akeley

Class AAA Playoff Scenarios

Section 2AAA

Scenarios:

• Holy Family is a fairly safe #1 with a very winnable game vs. Denfeld.
• Washburn is very safe to get at least the #2
• Belle Plaine win or Waseca loss and BP is #3.
• Belle Plaine loss and Waseca win moves Waseca to #3.
• 5-6-7 is win and move up – lose and possibly fall.  All three win or all three lose and the order should stay Highland Park | Richfield | St. Peter.
• Jordan locked at #8

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Holy Family Catholic over Jordan
• Minneapolis Washburn over St. Paul Central
• Belle Plaine vs LeSueur-Henderson (pickem)
• Waseca over St. Peter
• St. Paul Highland Park over Minneapolis Henry
• Simley over Richfield
• Mayer Lutheran over Jordan

1. Holy Family Catholic
2. Minneapolis Washburn
3. Belle Plaine/Holy Family Acad
4. Waseca
5. St. Paul Highland Park
6. Richfield
7. St. Peter
8. Jordan

 Section 3AAA

Scenarios:

• Logjam at the top
• Everything hinges on the Glencoe-Silver Lake/Delano game.  If GSL wins, they will be number 1.  If they lose and both Fairmont and Monte win, GSL falls to 3.  Main reason is GSL’s 6 wins are over teams either 2-5 or 3-4.  Nobody over .500.  These three will be 1-2-3 in some order.
• Logjam in the middle
• AND everybody except New Ulm is a pickem game.
• If Dassel beats Annandale, they will be fighting with the Redwood Valley/Worthington winner to host the 4-5 matchup.
• Watertown-Mayer win could push them up to as high as 6 depending on who the other losers are.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Fairmont over New Ulm
• Glencoe-Silver Lake vs Delano (pickem)
• Montevideo over Minneota/Lincoln HI
• Dassel-Cokato over Annandale
• Worthington vs Redwood Valley (pickem)
• Watertown-Mayer over Montgomery-Lonsdale

1. Fairmont/Glencoe-Silver Lake
2. Montevideo/Fairmont
3. Glencoe-Silver Lake/Montevideo
4. Dassel-Cokato
5. Worthington/Redwood Valley
6. Worthington/Redwood Valley/Watertown-Mayer
7. Worthington/Redwood Valley/Watertown-Mayer
8. New Ulm

Section 4AAA

Scenarios:

• St. Croix Lutheran is safe at #1
• St. Anthony Village should be ok at #2.  St. Paul Johnson drew Mlps Southwest in the Twin Cities game – beating a 4 win AAAAA team is worth quite a bit, but it doesn’t look like it will be quite enough to push past St. Anthony.
• They can push past Concordia into 3^rd, however.  But if Johnson loses to Southwest they are more than likely headed to the 4 seed.
• If Minnehaha beats DeLaSalle they can get past a losing Johnson into 4^th, probably not catch Concordia but it is fairly close.
• New Life is safe at 6, Como Park at 7 and SPA/MPA at 8

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• St. Croix Lutheran over Brooklyn Center
• St. Anthony Village over St. Agnes
• Concordia Academy over New Life Academy
• Minneapolis Southwest over St. Paul Johnson
• DeLaSalle over Minnehaha Academy
• St. Paul Como Park over Minneapolis North
• Providence Academy over SPA/MPA

1. St. Croix Lutheran
2. St. Anthony Village
3. Concordia Academy-Roseville
4. St. Paul Johnson
5. Minnehaha Academy
6. New Life Academy
7. St. Paul Como Park
8. St. Paul Academy/Mounds Park Academy

Section 5AAA

Scenarios:

• DeLaSalle is #1
• Providence Academy is #2
• Breck/Blake/Rockford/Henry
• Breck win and they are #3 – Rockford/Henry can move past Blake if they win.
• Blake win, and Rockford/Henry win – all four teams could be 3-4-5-6. (and will play each other in some form in the first round).
• Columbia Heights is locked in at #7.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• DeLaSalle over Minnehaha Academy
• Providence Academy over SPA/MPA
• Breck over Blake
• Eden Valley-Watkins over Rockford
• St. Paul Highland Park over Minneapolis Henry

1. DeLaSalle
2. Providence Academy
3. Breck
4. Blake
5. Rockford
6. Minneapolis Henry
7. Columbia Heights

 

Section 6AAA

Scenarios:

• A lot of even games this week, which is making the scenarios more difficult to decipher.
• St. Cloud Cathedral can pass Zimmerman if they both win because Zimmerman is playing a zero win team and Cathedral is playing a 6-win AAAA team.  But it will be close.
• Winner of NLS and Albany will be ahead of the other one, and could get close to/pass Cathedral if they lose to Rocori.
• Loser of NLS/Albany needs to be worried about getting passed by Foley.
• Litchfield is 6 with a win.
• Annandale can slide into 6 with a win and Litchfield loss….Melrose is locked into 8.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Zimmerman over Princeton
• St. Cloud Cathedral vs Rocori (pickem)
• New London-Spicer vs Albany (pickem)
• Foley over Mora
• Litchfield over Orono
• Annandale vs Dassel-Cokato (pickem)
• Melrose vs Sauk Centre (pickem)

1. Too many pickems to give an opinion on the final results

 

Section 7AAA

Scenarios:

• With a win, Greenway should stay in number 1
• With a win, Pine City should stay in number 2
• Proctor/Virginia winner should be number 3
• Proctor/Virginia loser should be number 4, unless Esko or Mora win.
• Esko and Mora lose, Esko at 5, Mora and Cloquet close for 6-7 if Cloquet wins.
• Cloquet/International Falls need to win or hope Milaca loses, Milaca win and they will probably make it in.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Greenway over International Falls
• Pine City over Hinckley-Finlayson
• Proctor vs  Virginia (pickem)
• Moose Lake-Willow River over Esko
• Foley over Mora
• Cloquet over Hibbing
• Little Falls over Milaca

1. Greenway
2. Pine City
3. Proctor/Virginia
4. Virginia/Proctor
5. Esko
6. Mora
7. Cloquet
8. International Falls
9. Milaca

Section 8AAA

Scenarios:

• This is another Section where teams are beating each other which makes them close together in the standings.
• Pequot Lakes wins and they are #1
• Thief River Falls wins and a logjam is created with PL/TRF and Perham.  Perham win over EGF appears to give them a slight edge.  Too close to call.  These three teams will be 1-2-3 no matter what.
• If EGF can beat Perham, they will lock up #4.  If not, they need Roseau to beat Park Rapids to get #4.
• Park Rapids win over Pequot Lakes in week 4 is holding them up high in the QRF.  If they beat Roseau they will be 4 will EGF loss, 5 with EGF win.
• Roseau win pushes them ahead of Crookston, as Crookston will be an underdog to Detroit Lakes.
• Staples needs help to get out of #8.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Pequot Lakes vs Thief River Falls (pickem)
• Perham over East Grand Forks
• Park Rapids vs Roseau (pickem)
• Detroit Lakes over Crookston
• Breckenridge over Staples-Motley

1. PL/TRF/Perham
2. PL/TRF/Perham
3. PL/TRF/Perham
4. East Grand Forks
5. Park Rapids Area
6. Roseau
7. Crookston
8. Staples-Motley

Class AAAA Playoff Scenarios

Section 1AAAA

Scenarios:

• #1 Basically comes down to Red Wing vs. Chanhassen.  If Red Wing wins, they will be #1.  If Red Wing loses and Faribault wins, Faribault will be #1.  If both lose, Red Wing will still be #1 because their strength of schedule will be better after this week.
• Northfield is #3 with a win, but not probable against Shakopee.  That opens the door for Winona and/or New Prague to move up with wins.
• Albert Lea vs. Austin – winner COULD get all the way to four.  It is possible for this scenario:
• Austin over Albert Lea
• Faribault over Winona
• Farmington over New Prague
• This would leave 4 teams at 1-6 with any of them having a chance TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Faribault over Winona
• Red Wing over Chanhassen
• Shakopee over Northfield
• Farmington over New Prague
• Albert Lea over Austin (pickem)

1. Red Wing
2. Faribault
3. Northfield
4. Winona
5. Albert Lea
6. New Prague
7. Austin

 

Section 2AAAA

Scenarios:

• Mankato West seems very solid in the number 1 spot, even with a loss and Hutch or Marshall winning, it doesn’t look like they can be passed.  The real question is for number two.
• In Hutch’s favor – they’ve played bigger schools, so when those schools win they get more points than if Marshall’s previous opponent’s win.
• In Marshall’s favor – they’ve mostly played teams that are winning – usually guaranteed wins from Fairmont and JCC.
• Since both teams should win, it’s going to come down to their previous opponent’s…I’m giving a SLIGHT edge to Hutchinson, but there is a real scenario where this could be a tie.
• Waconia has a decent sized lead and will be the favorite against Mound-Westonka (1-6), so they should be penciled in heavy lead as the 4.
• Mankato East is a big underdog against West, so the 5-6 seeds will depend on how Willmar does.  Win and they go to Waconia….lose and the go to Marshall/Hutch.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Mankato West over Mankato East
• Hutchinson over Grand Rapids
• Marshall over Luverne
• Waconia over Mound-Westonka
• Willmar over Fergus Falls (actually a pickem, but will take Willmar since this is their Section)

1. Mankato West
2. Hutchinson
3. Marshall
4. Waconia
5. Willmar
6. Mankato East

NOTE ADDED 3PM 10/18

Hutchinson is #2 if:
Glencoe, Orono, Fairmont, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Litchfield, Fairmont, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Orono, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Litchfield, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Orono, Fairmont, Madison win
Glencoe, Litchfield, Fairmont, Madison win
Glencoe, Orono, New Ulm, Madison win
Glencoe, Litchfield, New Ulm, Madison win
Delano, Orono, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Delano, Litchfield, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Delano, Orono, Fairmont, Madison win
Delano, Litchfield, Fairmont, Madison win
Delano, Orono, New Ulm, Madison win
Delano, Litchfield, New Ulm, Madison win

Marshall is #2 if:
Delano, Litchfield, Fairmont, Pipestone win

There is a tie if:
Delano, Orono, Fairmont, Pipestone win

 

 Section 3AAAA

Scenarios:

• St. Thomas safe at #1.
• South St. Paul plays a much tougher opponent this week than Holy Angels, and has a chance to make up the points.  If both win, it will be close – but Holy Angel s still has a SLIGHT lead.  Will depend on previous opponent’s.
• Simley and St. Louis Park have winnable games – SLP is in the driver’s seat though.  Both win or both lose and SLP should be #4.  But if SLP loses and Simley wins, Simley will be 4.
• Chaska and Henry Sibley big underdogs this week – will probably stay at 6 & 7 respectively.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• St. Thomas Academy over Henry Sibley
• Holy Angels over Chaska
• South St. Paul over Tartan
• Simley over Richfield
• Irondale over St. Louis Park

1. St. Thomas Academy
2. Holy Angels
3. South St. Paul
4. Simley
5. St. Louis Park
6. Chaska
7. Henry Sibley

 

Section 4AAAA

Scenarios:

• Winner of Mahtomedi/Hill-Murray will be #1
• If Mahtomedi wins, Central could pass H-M with a win over Washburn.
• Chisago Lakes win and they are 4, lose and Harding win will make it close.
• North Branch locked in 6.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Mahtomedi over Hill-Murray
• St. Paul Central over Minneapolis Washburn
• Benilde-St. Margaret’s over Chisago Lakes Area
• St. Paul Harding over Minneapolis Edison
• Totino-Grace over North Branch

1. Mahtomedi
2. Hill-Murray
3. St. Paul Central
4. Chisago Lakes Area
5. St. Paul Harding
6. North Branch

 

Section 5AAAA

Scenarios:

• Rogers appears to be safe in #1, only loss is to 6-1 Elk River.
• Delano is 7-0, but have not beaten a team with a winning record.  They can change that this week against Glencoe-Silver Lake, but it may be too little too late.  They appear headed to a #2 seed.
• Becker win over Big Lake solidifies #3, and Monticello 4.
• Big Lake over Becker would move Monticello into #3 with a win, Becker at 4.
• Doesn’t look like Big Lake can catch Becker, could catch Monticello if they lose.
• Princeton is in 6^th.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Rogers over Cambridge-Isanti
• Delano over Glencoe-Silver Lake
• Becker over Big Lake
• Monticello over Buffalo
• Zimmerman over Princeton

1. Rogers
2. Delano
3. Becker
4. Monticello
5. Big Lake
6. Princeton

Section 7AAAA

Scenarios:

• Bemidji locked at #1, Hermantown at #2
• Not much change expected in this Section, unless Grand Rapids pulls an upset and/or Detroit Lakes gets upset.  More than likely these 6 seeds will stay the same.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Bemidji over Sartell-St. Stephen
• Hermantown over Eveleth-Gilbert
• Detroit Lakes over Crookston
• Hutchinson over Grand Rapids
• Holy Family Catholic over Duluth Denfeld
• Hibbing vs Cloquet (pickem)

1. Bemidji
2. Hermantown
3. Detroit Lakes
4. Grand Rapids
5. Duluth Denfeld
6. Hibbing

 Section 8AAAA

Scenarios:

• Rocori locked at #1, Fergus Falls is likely at #2 unless Sartell upsets Bemidji.
• 3-6 is up in the air – although Sartell and Sauk Rapids are underdogs, while Alexandria and Little Falls are probably pickem.  Too many scenarios/possibilities.  If Little Falls wins and the others lose, Little Falls could jump up to #4.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Rocori over St. Cloud Cathedral (pickem)
• Fergus Falls over Willmar (pickem)
• Bemidji over Sartell-St. Stephen
• Brainerd over Sauk Rapids-Rice
• Moorhead over Alexandria
• Little Falls over Milaca
• St. Cloud Tech over St. Cloud Apollo

1. Rocori
2. Fergus Falls
3. Sartell-St. Stephen
4. Sauk Rapids-Rice
5. Little Falls
6. Alexandria
7. St. Cloud Apollo

Class AAAAA Playoff Scenarios

Section 1AAAAA

Scenarios:

• Lakeville North looks good for number 1.
• Owatonna will be #2 with a win, unless LN loses then could be #1.
• 3-5: basically win and host a playoff game scenario with one exception.  If all three win, it will be close as Lakeville South plays 2-win Burnsville this week.
• Century/Farmington currently tied, but Century has a tougher game in week 8.  If both lose, Century in 6^th.  If both win, Farmington 7^th, Century/Mayo/JM could all be 5-3 and too close to call.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Lakeville North over Prior Lake
• Owatonna over Mayo
• Lakeville South over Burnsville
• John Marshall over Century
• Farmington over New Prague

1. Lakeville North
2. Owatonna
3. Lakeville South
4. Rochester John Marshall
5. Rochester Mayo
6. Farmington
7. Rochester Century

 

Section 2AAAAA

Scenarios:

• The most talked about QRF numbers of any Section
• The Problem with Mounds View’s resume is that they will have 5 out of 7 wins over teams that win 2 games or less.
• Totino-Grace and Mounds View opponents in Week 8 are combined 1-15.
• Stillwater and White Bear Lake both play 2 win teams – likely to stay 3 and 4 respectively.
• The bigger school schedule Mounds View has played will probably get them over the Totino-Grace hurdle into the #1 spot this week, but it is still very close.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Totino-Grace over North Branch
• Mounds View over Park of Cottage Grove
• Stillwater over Hastings
• White Bear Lake over East Ridge
• Irondale over St. Louis Park
• South St. Paul over Tartan
• Cretin-Derham Hall over Roseville
• Edina over North St. Paul

1. Mounds View
2. Totino-Grace
3. Stillwater Area
4. White Bear Lake
5. Irondale
6. Tartan
7. Roseville
8. North St. Paul

 

Section 4AAAAA

Scenarios:

• Cretin is safe at #1
• Eagan win over Rosemount would put them close to Woodbury, but would still need help.
• Hastings/East Ridge tied, both play 5-win AAAAA teams.  Hastings won head to head.  They share common opponents except:
• Hastings vs. Roseville (probable loss to CDH)
• East Ridge vs. Forest Lake (underdog to Woodbury)
• Will be tied unless one wins and the other doesn’t, OR Roseville/Forest Lake win
• Minneapolis South could jump to #4 with a win over Cooper.
• Park of Cottage Grove is locked into #7

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Cretin-Derham Hall over Roseville
• Woodbury over Forest Lake
• Rosemount over Eagan
• Stillwater over Hastings
• White Bear Lake over East Ridge
• Cooper over Minneapolis South
• Mounds View over Park of Cottage Grove

1. Cretin-Derham Hall
2. Woodbury
3. Eagan
4. Hastings
5. East Ridge
6. Minneapolis South
7. Park of Cottage Grove

 Section 5AAAAA

Scenarios:

• Wazyata easily earns the bye.  Not only are they 7-0 against all AAAAA competition, their opponent’s combined record in games not vs. Wayzata?  30-12
• 2-4 is congested – Osseo beat Champlin Park on a Hail Mary in Week 6, but Osseo’s opponent’s so far are only 15-34, while CP’s are 29-20.  Both teams have games against 6-1 AAAAA schools, as does St. Michael-Albertville lurking closely behind.
• Bottom line – order appears to be Osseo – Champlin Park – STMA, but lose in Week 8 and drop behind anyone that won.
• Cooper gets Minneapolis South and needs to win to stay ahead of Armstrong who plays a winless Park Center, AND Maple Grove because if the Crimson can upset Centennial, they will move up to the 5 seed.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Wayzata vs Eden Prairie (pickem – no change in seeding win/lose)
• Osseo vs Blaine (pickem)
• Champlin Park vs Anoka (pickem)
• St. Michael-Albertville vs Elk River (pickem)
• Robbinsdale Cooper over Minneapolis South
• Robbinsdale Armstrong over Park Center
• Centennial over Maple Grove

1. Wayzata
2. Osseo|Champlin Park|St. Michael-Albertville
3. Osseo|Champlin Park|St. Michael-Albertville
4. Osseo|Champlin Park|St. Michael-Albertville
5. Robbinsdale Cooper
6. Robbinsdale Armstrong
7. Maple Grove

Section 7AAAAA

Scenarios:

• If Anoka wins or Blaine loses – Anoka will be the 1 seed
• If Anoka loses and Blaine wins – Blaine will be the 1 seed
• St. Francis plays a 0-win AAA team this week, can stay in 2^nd if Blaine loses, otherwise drops to 3rd/4th.
• Centennial has a chance to move into 3^rd and maybe 2^nd if Blaine loses.
• Forest Lake appears safe in 5^th.
• Winner of Coon Rapids/Andover is probably 6^th, loser 7^th.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Anoka vs Champlin Park (pickem)
• St. Francis over Columbia Heights
• Blaine vs Osseo (pickem)
• Centennial over Maple Grove
• Woodbury over Forest Lake
• Coon Rapids vs Andover (pickem)

1. Anoka
2. Blaine
3. St. Francis
4. Centennial
5. Forest Lake
6. Coon Rapids | Andover
7. Coon Rapids | Andover

 Section 8AAAAA

Scenarios:

• Elk River solid at # 1
• 2-4 round-robin – Brainerd beat Tech, Tech beat Moorhead, Moorhead beat Brainerd.
• Brainerd – biggest wins – over Rocori (6-1) and Tech (5-2)
• Tech – most wins  - fewest opponent wins
• Moorhead – BRUTAL schedule – opponent’s they have lost to are combined 24-4.  Only played one team below .500, and Willmar is 3-4.
• All three will be favored this week – if all three win it is probably going to be Brainerd, Moorhead then Tech because Tech’s schedule is so soft.
• Duluth East is fairly safe at 5….but Buffalo or Cambridge win will knock them down.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Elk River vs St. Michael-Albertville (pickem)
• Brainerd over Sauk Rapids-Rice
• St. Cloud Tech over St. Cloud Apollo
• Moorhead over Alexandria
• Monticello over Buffalo
• Rogers over Cambridge

1. Elk River
2. Brainerd
3. Moorhead
4. St. Cloud Tech
5. Duluth East
6. Buffalo
7. Cambridge-Isanti

QRF explained in detail

I'm getting a lot of feedback wondering how to explain the new QRF and how it is different than the previous formulas. Here is the basic answer

Old formulas used to be:
Predetermined value (based on opponent class) / number of games played

New QRF is:
Predetermined value (based on opponent class) * number of opponent wins / number of games played

That's it. The old QRF that incorporated margin of victory added another parameter, but that is all.

So how would this have looked last year? Posting all of the results for every team in every sport would not be a fun read, so let's look at an example of one team (I've chosen Owatonna because they play a mix of AAAAA and AAAA schools, and also went 5-3 last year so we can see how winning and losing affects the QRF).  I'll do another post later that covers an entire Class.

Owatonna 2010 Football Page

Game#		Opponent	PF		PA	QRF	Opp. Wins
1	L	Wayzata	14		42	30	6
2	L	Mankato West	8		21	35	8
3	W	Albert Lea	17		14	50	2
4	L	Rochester Century	7		34	42	8
5	W	Winona	49		19	65	3
6	W	Rochester Mayo	14		9	110	5
7	W	Faribault	35		6	80	4
8	W	Rochester John Marshall	42		10	74	3

The "QRF" column shows how many points the Huskies would have earned for each of their 8 games last year.

Here it is in order of points earned.

Game#		Opponent	PF		PA	QRF	Opp. Wins
6	W	Rochester Mayo	14		9	110	5
7	W	Faribault	35		6	80	4
8	W	Rochester John Marshall	42		10	74	3
5	W	Winona	49		19	65	3
3	W	Albert Lea	17		14	50	2
4	L	Rochester Century	7		34	42	8
2	L	Mankato West	8		21	35	8
1	L	Wayzata	14		42	30	6

The actual QRF number that gets posted to the site and is used in comparing to other teams is the average of the individual game QRF's.  In Owatonna's case, the number that would be tied to them is 60.8.

Using the above principals applied to all of the teams in 2010 Section 1AAAAA, the seeding would have been:

1. Rochester Century (8-0) 69.9
2. Lakeville North (6-2) 62.3
3. Owatonna (5-3) 60.8
4. Lakeville South (5-3) 54.5
5. Rochester Mayo (5-3) 53.0
6. Rochester John Marshall (3-5) 43.1
7. Farmington (1-7) 23.3

The only switch from how they were actually seeded would've been Owatonna and Lakeville South flipping seeds, mostly because Owatonna's opponents were 39-25, while Lakeville South's opponents were 33-31.

As most people know, Lakeville South ended up winning the Section, avenging an earlier loss to Lakeville North and then rolling over Century in the final.  But that is why we play the games on the field and not the QRF.

The QRF is NOT a predictor of what will happen.  It is a way to give proper credit to how a team has already played.