Class AAAA Playoff Scenarios

Section 1AAAA

Scenarios:

• #1 Basically comes down to Red Wing vs. Chanhassen.  If Red Wing wins, they will be #1.  If Red Wing loses and Faribault wins, Faribault will be #1.  If both lose, Red Wing will still be #1 because their strength of schedule will be better after this week.
• Northfield is #3 with a win, but not probable against Shakopee.  That opens the door for Winona and/or New Prague to move up with wins.
• Albert Lea vs. Austin – winner COULD get all the way to four.  It is possible for this scenario:
• Austin over Albert Lea
• Faribault over Winona
• Farmington over New Prague
• This would leave 4 teams at 1-6 with any of them having a chance TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Faribault over Winona
• Red Wing over Chanhassen
• Shakopee over Northfield
• Farmington over New Prague
• Albert Lea over Austin (pickem)

1. Red Wing
2. Faribault
3. Northfield
4. Winona
5. Albert Lea
6. New Prague
7. Austin

 

Section 2AAAA

Scenarios:

• Mankato West seems very solid in the number 1 spot, even with a loss and Hutch or Marshall winning, it doesn’t look like they can be passed.  The real question is for number two.
• In Hutch’s favor – they’ve played bigger schools, so when those schools win they get more points than if Marshall’s previous opponent’s win.
• In Marshall’s favor – they’ve mostly played teams that are winning – usually guaranteed wins from Fairmont and JCC.
• Since both teams should win, it’s going to come down to their previous opponent’s…I’m giving a SLIGHT edge to Hutchinson, but there is a real scenario where this could be a tie.
• Waconia has a decent sized lead and will be the favorite against Mound-Westonka (1-6), so they should be penciled in heavy lead as the 4.
• Mankato East is a big underdog against West, so the 5-6 seeds will depend on how Willmar does.  Win and they go to Waconia….lose and the go to Marshall/Hutch.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Mankato West over Mankato East
• Hutchinson over Grand Rapids
• Marshall over Luverne
• Waconia over Mound-Westonka
• Willmar over Fergus Falls (actually a pickem, but will take Willmar since this is their Section)

1. Mankato West
2. Hutchinson
3. Marshall
4. Waconia
5. Willmar
6. Mankato East

NOTE ADDED 3PM 10/18

Hutchinson is #2 if:
Glencoe, Orono, Fairmont, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Litchfield, Fairmont, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Orono, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Litchfield, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Orono, Fairmont, Madison win
Glencoe, Litchfield, Fairmont, Madison win
Glencoe, Orono, New Ulm, Madison win
Glencoe, Litchfield, New Ulm, Madison win
Delano, Orono, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Delano, Litchfield, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Delano, Orono, Fairmont, Madison win
Delano, Litchfield, Fairmont, Madison win
Delano, Orono, New Ulm, Madison win
Delano, Litchfield, New Ulm, Madison win

Marshall is #2 if:
Delano, Litchfield, Fairmont, Pipestone win

There is a tie if:
Delano, Orono, Fairmont, Pipestone win

 

 Section 3AAAA

Scenarios:

• St. Thomas safe at #1.
• South St. Paul plays a much tougher opponent this week than Holy Angels, and has a chance to make up the points.  If both win, it will be close – but Holy Angel s still has a SLIGHT lead.  Will depend on previous opponent’s.
• Simley and St. Louis Park have winnable games – SLP is in the driver’s seat though.  Both win or both lose and SLP should be #4.  But if SLP loses and Simley wins, Simley will be 4.
• Chaska and Henry Sibley big underdogs this week – will probably stay at 6 & 7 respectively.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• St. Thomas Academy over Henry Sibley
• Holy Angels over Chaska
• South St. Paul over Tartan
• Simley over Richfield
• Irondale over St. Louis Park

1. St. Thomas Academy
2. Holy Angels
3. South St. Paul
4. Simley
5. St. Louis Park
6. Chaska
7. Henry Sibley

 

Section 4AAAA

Scenarios:

• Winner of Mahtomedi/Hill-Murray will be #1
• If Mahtomedi wins, Central could pass H-M with a win over Washburn.
• Chisago Lakes win and they are 4, lose and Harding win will make it close.
• North Branch locked in 6.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Mahtomedi over Hill-Murray
• St. Paul Central over Minneapolis Washburn
• Benilde-St. Margaret’s over Chisago Lakes Area
• St. Paul Harding over Minneapolis Edison
• Totino-Grace over North Branch

1. Mahtomedi
2. Hill-Murray
3. St. Paul Central
4. Chisago Lakes Area
5. St. Paul Harding
6. North Branch

 

Section 5AAAA

Scenarios:

• Rogers appears to be safe in #1, only loss is to 6-1 Elk River.
• Delano is 7-0, but have not beaten a team with a winning record.  They can change that this week against Glencoe-Silver Lake, but it may be too little too late.  They appear headed to a #2 seed.
• Becker win over Big Lake solidifies #3, and Monticello 4.
• Big Lake over Becker would move Monticello into #3 with a win, Becker at 4.
• Doesn’t look like Big Lake can catch Becker, could catch Monticello if they lose.
• Princeton is in 6^th.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Rogers over Cambridge-Isanti
• Delano over Glencoe-Silver Lake
• Becker over Big Lake
• Monticello over Buffalo
• Zimmerman over Princeton

1. Rogers
2. Delano
3. Becker
4. Monticello
5. Big Lake
6. Princeton

Section 7AAAA

Scenarios:

• Bemidji locked at #1, Hermantown at #2
• Not much change expected in this Section, unless Grand Rapids pulls an upset and/or Detroit Lakes gets upset.  More than likely these 6 seeds will stay the same.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Bemidji over Sartell-St. Stephen
• Hermantown over Eveleth-Gilbert
• Detroit Lakes over Crookston
• Hutchinson over Grand Rapids
• Holy Family Catholic over Duluth Denfeld
• Hibbing vs Cloquet (pickem)

1. Bemidji
2. Hermantown
3. Detroit Lakes
4. Grand Rapids
5. Duluth Denfeld
6. Hibbing

 Section 8AAAA

Scenarios:

• Rocori locked at #1, Fergus Falls is likely at #2 unless Sartell upsets Bemidji.
• 3-6 is up in the air – although Sartell and Sauk Rapids are underdogs, while Alexandria and Little Falls are probably pickem.  Too many scenarios/possibilities.  If Little Falls wins and the others lose, Little Falls could jump up to #4.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Rocori over St. Cloud Cathedral (pickem)
• Fergus Falls over Willmar (pickem)
• Bemidji over Sartell-St. Stephen
• Brainerd over Sauk Rapids-Rice
• Moorhead over Alexandria
• Little Falls over Milaca
• St. Cloud Tech over St. Cloud Apollo

1. Rocori
2. Fergus Falls
3. Sartell-St. Stephen
4. Sauk Rapids-Rice
5. Little Falls
6. Alexandria
7. St. Cloud Apollo

Class AAAAA Playoff Scenarios

Section 1AAAAA

Scenarios:

• Lakeville North looks good for number 1.
• Owatonna will be #2 with a win, unless LN loses then could be #1.
• 3-5: basically win and host a playoff game scenario with one exception.  If all three win, it will be close as Lakeville South plays 2-win Burnsville this week.
• Century/Farmington currently tied, but Century has a tougher game in week 8.  If both lose, Century in 6^th.  If both win, Farmington 7^th, Century/Mayo/JM could all be 5-3 and too close to call.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Lakeville North over Prior Lake
• Owatonna over Mayo
• Lakeville South over Burnsville
• John Marshall over Century
• Farmington over New Prague

1. Lakeville North
2. Owatonna
3. Lakeville South
4. Rochester John Marshall
5. Rochester Mayo
6. Farmington
7. Rochester Century

 

Section 2AAAAA

Scenarios:

• The most talked about QRF numbers of any Section
• The Problem with Mounds View’s resume is that they will have 5 out of 7 wins over teams that win 2 games or less.
• Totino-Grace and Mounds View opponents in Week 8 are combined 1-15.
• Stillwater and White Bear Lake both play 2 win teams – likely to stay 3 and 4 respectively.
• The bigger school schedule Mounds View has played will probably get them over the Totino-Grace hurdle into the #1 spot this week, but it is still very close.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Totino-Grace over North Branch
• Mounds View over Park of Cottage Grove
• Stillwater over Hastings
• White Bear Lake over East Ridge
• Irondale over St. Louis Park
• South St. Paul over Tartan
• Cretin-Derham Hall over Roseville
• Edina over North St. Paul

1. Mounds View
2. Totino-Grace
3. Stillwater Area
4. White Bear Lake
5. Irondale
6. Tartan
7. Roseville
8. North St. Paul

 

Section 4AAAAA

Scenarios:

• Cretin is safe at #1
• Eagan win over Rosemount would put them close to Woodbury, but would still need help.
• Hastings/East Ridge tied, both play 5-win AAAAA teams.  Hastings won head to head.  They share common opponents except:
• Hastings vs. Roseville (probable loss to CDH)
• East Ridge vs. Forest Lake (underdog to Woodbury)
• Will be tied unless one wins and the other doesn’t, OR Roseville/Forest Lake win
• Minneapolis South could jump to #4 with a win over Cooper.
• Park of Cottage Grove is locked into #7

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Cretin-Derham Hall over Roseville
• Woodbury over Forest Lake
• Rosemount over Eagan
• Stillwater over Hastings
• White Bear Lake over East Ridge
• Cooper over Minneapolis South
• Mounds View over Park of Cottage Grove

1. Cretin-Derham Hall
2. Woodbury
3. Eagan
4. Hastings
5. East Ridge
6. Minneapolis South
7. Park of Cottage Grove

 Section 5AAAAA

Scenarios:

• Wazyata easily earns the bye.  Not only are they 7-0 against all AAAAA competition, their opponent’s combined record in games not vs. Wayzata?  30-12
• 2-4 is congested – Osseo beat Champlin Park on a Hail Mary in Week 6, but Osseo’s opponent’s so far are only 15-34, while CP’s are 29-20.  Both teams have games against 6-1 AAAAA schools, as does St. Michael-Albertville lurking closely behind.
• Bottom line – order appears to be Osseo – Champlin Park – STMA, but lose in Week 8 and drop behind anyone that won.
• Cooper gets Minneapolis South and needs to win to stay ahead of Armstrong who plays a winless Park Center, AND Maple Grove because if the Crimson can upset Centennial, they will move up to the 5 seed.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Wayzata vs Eden Prairie (pickem – no change in seeding win/lose)
• Osseo vs Blaine (pickem)
• Champlin Park vs Anoka (pickem)
• St. Michael-Albertville vs Elk River (pickem)
• Robbinsdale Cooper over Minneapolis South
• Robbinsdale Armstrong over Park Center
• Centennial over Maple Grove

1. Wayzata
2. Osseo|Champlin Park|St. Michael-Albertville
3. Osseo|Champlin Park|St. Michael-Albertville
4. Osseo|Champlin Park|St. Michael-Albertville
5. Robbinsdale Cooper
6. Robbinsdale Armstrong
7. Maple Grove

Section 7AAAAA

Scenarios:

• If Anoka wins or Blaine loses – Anoka will be the 1 seed
• If Anoka loses and Blaine wins – Blaine will be the 1 seed
• St. Francis plays a 0-win AAA team this week, can stay in 2^nd if Blaine loses, otherwise drops to 3rd/4th.
• Centennial has a chance to move into 3^rd and maybe 2^nd if Blaine loses.
• Forest Lake appears safe in 5^th.
• Winner of Coon Rapids/Andover is probably 6^th, loser 7^th.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Anoka vs Champlin Park (pickem)
• St. Francis over Columbia Heights
• Blaine vs Osseo (pickem)
• Centennial over Maple Grove
• Woodbury over Forest Lake
• Coon Rapids vs Andover (pickem)

1. Anoka
2. Blaine
3. St. Francis
4. Centennial
5. Forest Lake
6. Coon Rapids | Andover
7. Coon Rapids | Andover

 Section 8AAAAA

Scenarios:

• Elk River solid at # 1
• 2-4 round-robin – Brainerd beat Tech, Tech beat Moorhead, Moorhead beat Brainerd.
• Brainerd – biggest wins – over Rocori (6-1) and Tech (5-2)
• Tech – most wins  - fewest opponent wins
• Moorhead – BRUTAL schedule – opponent’s they have lost to are combined 24-4.  Only played one team below .500, and Willmar is 3-4.
• All three will be favored this week – if all three win it is probably going to be Brainerd, Moorhead then Tech because Tech’s schedule is so soft.
• Duluth East is fairly safe at 5….but Buffalo or Cambridge win will knock them down.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Elk River vs St. Michael-Albertville (pickem)
• Brainerd over Sauk Rapids-Rice
• St. Cloud Tech over St. Cloud Apollo
• Moorhead over Alexandria
• Monticello over Buffalo
• Rogers over Cambridge

1. Elk River
2. Brainerd
3. Moorhead
4. St. Cloud Tech
5. Duluth East
6. Buffalo
7. Cambridge-Isanti

QRF explained in detail

I'm getting a lot of feedback wondering how to explain the new QRF and how it is different than the previous formulas. Here is the basic answer

Old formulas used to be:
Predetermined value (based on opponent class) / number of games played

New QRF is:
Predetermined value (based on opponent class) * number of opponent wins / number of games played

That's it. The old QRF that incorporated margin of victory added another parameter, but that is all.

So how would this have looked last year? Posting all of the results for every team in every sport would not be a fun read, so let's look at an example of one team (I've chosen Owatonna because they play a mix of AAAAA and AAAA schools, and also went 5-3 last year so we can see how winning and losing affects the QRF).  I'll do another post later that covers an entire Class.

Owatonna 2010 Football Page

Game#		Opponent	PF		PA	QRF	Opp. Wins
1	L	Wayzata	14		42	30	6
2	L	Mankato West	8		21	35	8
3	W	Albert Lea	17		14	50	2
4	L	Rochester Century	7		34	42	8
5	W	Winona	49		19	65	3
6	W	Rochester Mayo	14		9	110	5
7	W	Faribault	35		6	80	4
8	W	Rochester John Marshall	42		10	74	3

The "QRF" column shows how many points the Huskies would have earned for each of their 8 games last year.

Here it is in order of points earned.

Game#		Opponent	PF		PA	QRF	Opp. Wins
6	W	Rochester Mayo	14		9	110	5
7	W	Faribault	35		6	80	4
8	W	Rochester John Marshall	42		10	74	3
5	W	Winona	49		19	65	3
3	W	Albert Lea	17		14	50	2
4	L	Rochester Century	7		34	42	8
2	L	Mankato West	8		21	35	8
1	L	Wayzata	14		42	30	6

The actual QRF number that gets posted to the site and is used in comparing to other teams is the average of the individual game QRF's.  In Owatonna's case, the number that would be tied to them is 60.8.

Using the above principals applied to all of the teams in 2010 Section 1AAAAA, the seeding would have been:

1. Rochester Century (8-0) 69.9
2. Lakeville North (6-2) 62.3
3. Owatonna (5-3) 60.8
4. Lakeville South (5-3) 54.5
5. Rochester Mayo (5-3) 53.0
6. Rochester John Marshall (3-5) 43.1
7. Farmington (1-7) 23.3

The only switch from how they were actually seeded would've been Owatonna and Lakeville South flipping seeds, mostly because Owatonna's opponents were 39-25, while Lakeville South's opponents were 33-31.

As most people know, Lakeville South ended up winning the Section, avenging an earlier loss to Lakeville North and then rolling over Century in the final.  But that is why we play the games on the field and not the QRF.

The QRF is NOT a predictor of what will happen.  It is a way to give proper credit to how a team has already played.

Section 6AA FB Semi's

Next request is for 6AA Football compare.

Breckenridge - 9-0, plays mostly AA and AAA teams.
Ottertail Central - 9-0-, plays mostly A and AA teams.
Pierz - 8-1, plays mostly AA teams and AAA teams.
Holdingford 5-4, same conference as Pierz.

Straight numbers this time:

Breckenridge						62.5
Game#		Opponent	PF		PA	QRF	Opp. Wins
1	W	Wahpeton	33		7
2	W	Pelican Rapids	26		7	74.5	5
3	W	West Central Area	59		0	52.0	3
4	W	Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton	28		20	92.6	7
5	W	Crookston	41		7	106.0	6
6	W	Wadena-Deer Creek	48		7	24.0	1
7	W	Warroad	43		24	48.7	3
8	W	Staples-Motley	27		20	78.5	5
9	W	Wadena-Deer Creek	42		0	24.0	1
Record		(	9	-	0	)	31
Ottertail Central						49.4
Game#		Opponent	PF		PA	QRF	Opp. Wins
1	W	Upsala/Swanville	36		8	92.6	7
2	W	New York Mills	50		20	22.0	1
3	W	Royalton	35		0	70.0	5
4	W	Osakis	35		13	49.6	3
5	W	United North Central	40		14	50.8	3
6	W	Pillager	42		13	69.5	5
7	W	Parkers Prairie	33		6	21.7	1
8	W	Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg	35		6	21.9	1
9	W	West Central Area	12		0	46.6	3
Record		(	9	-	0	)	29
Pierz						43.7
Game#		Opponent	PF		PA	QRF	Opp. Wins
1	W	Hibbing	58		0	10.0	0
2	W	Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted	14		0	59.6	4
3	W	Kimball Area	40		12	10.0	0
4	L	Eden Valley-Watkins	6		27	27.2	9
5	W	Rockford	53		7	42.0	2
6	W	Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa	33		0	34.0	2
7	W	Maple Lake	14		7	91.9	7
8	W	Holdingford	14		8	68.0	5
9	W	Osakis	34		8	50.8	3
Record		(	8	-	1	)	32
Holdingford						38.3
Game#		Opponent	PF		PA	QRF	Opp. Wins
1	L	Holy Family Catholic	20		21	51.2	9
2	W	Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa	29		14	31.0	2
3	L	Eden Valley-Watkins	0		21	27.2	9
4	W	Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted	26		16	58.0	4
5	W	Kimball Area	26		0	10.0	0
6	L	Maple Lake	7		18	26.4	7
7	W	Rockford	29		7	40.4	2
8	L	Pierz	8		14	34.3	8
9	W	Crosby-Ironton	46		12	66.0	4
Record		(	5	-	4	)	45