Updated 12/14/15
Week two of monitoring a Section after the QRF Calculation on Monday, December 14th. The Line of Demarcation is holding, in fact improving on the numbers from week 1. I don't expect them to stay at these numbers, they will probably end up at about 90/10.- QRF vs Higher Teams 2-53 (3.8%)
- in both cases (Breckenridge over Staples-Motley and East Grand Forks over Stephen-Argyle) the teams would be within the Tiebreaker Margin for seeding and the head to head would count.
- QRF vs Lower Teams 37-3 (92.5%)
- BGMR vs Clearbrook-Gonvick have already split games this year
- Crookston and Win-E-Mac (this is currently WEM's only win)
- Staples-Motley and Breckenridge are within the TM
Season ends today with Tiebreaker Margin applied:
- #11 Badger/Greenbush-Middle River @ #6 Staples-Motley
- #14 Hawley @ #3 Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton
- #10 Wadena-Deer Creek @ #7 East Grand Forks
- #15 Pelican Rapids @ #2 Warroad
- #12 Park Rapids Area @ #5 Breckenridge
- #13 Roseau @ #4 Barnesville
- #9 Bagley @ #8 Crookston
- #16 Frazee @ #1 Perham
| TEAM | Record | Overall QRF | Avg Opp QRF | vs Higher QRF | vs Lower QRF |
| Perham | (4-0) | 30 | 200 | (0-0) | (4-0) |
| Warroad | (6-1) | 138 | 266 | (0-1) | (6-0) |
| Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton | (5-1) | 142 | 291 | (0-1) | (5-0) |
| Barnesville | (4-1) | 151 | 256 | (0-1) | (4-0) |
| Staples-Motley | (4-3) | 170 | 206 | (0-2) | (4-1) |
| Breckenridge | (3-2) | 172 | 224 | (1-2) | (2-0) |
| East Grand Forks | (2-4) | 253 | 194 | (1-4) | (1-0) |
| Crookston | (2-5) | 268 | 203 | (0-4) | (2-1) |
| Bagley | (3-3) | 272 | 281 | (0-3) | (3-0) |
| Wadena-Deer Creek | (2-3) | 286 | 252 | (0-3) | (2-0) |
| Park Rapids Area | (1-6) | 342 | 199 | (0-6) | (1-0) |
| Badger/Greenbush-Middle River | (2-5) | 347 | 257 | (0-4) | (2-1) |
| Roseau | (1-6) | 383 | 262 | (0-6) | (1-0) |
| Hawley | (0-6) | 386 | 152 | (0-5) | (0-0) |
| Pelican Rapids | (0-6) | 389 | 147 | (0-6) | (0-0) |
| Frazee | (0-5) | 399 | 200 | (0-5) | (0-0) |
| (2-53) 3.8% | (37-3) 92.5% |
12/9/15
The QRF gives points for a specific game based on the quality of the opponent. It does this by measuring what Class size they are in, the Classes of the opponents they have already played, and the number of wins they have against those opponents. Using this criteria it jumbles all teams in the state into a value order irregardless of Class. (See FAQ for specific formula parameters)
I've also heard coaches say they are rescheduling just to play bigger schools to help their QRF. I can't stress this enough - IT DOES NOT help your QRF to lose games. Winning games helps, and beating good teams regardless of Class helps your QRF. Losing to good teams rather than bad teams just softens the landing.
The QRF will find you, you can only manipulate it based on results, not scheduling. Too much of your QRF is based on how your opponents do that it isn't possible for you to artificially raise it by scheduling bigger schools.
Here's a different way to look at it. The Line of Demarcation post was done about halfway thru the season last year. Below was done after the first QRF on 12/7/15. The results in both cases are similar, and should stay similar right up until the end.
90% of the time you have lost to a team ranked above you
90% of the time you beat a team ranked below you
So is 90% good enough? YES! Just because Team A won the game doesn't mean they are better than Team B. Sometimes it was an upset, the more talented team lost. But in more cases, teams are essentially even, and one team wins and the other team loses. Play each other twice in the season and split, it's mathematically impossible to put teams in an order where you didn't beat the team above you. Another scenario is Team A beat Team B, Team B beat Team C and Team C beat Team A. Someone will be ranked third in this scenario (and it happens all the time).
Right now, there are 4 games in this Section where the lower ranked team won:
- #166 over #153
- #198 over #197
- #268 over #261
- #281 over #268
There are 2 games in this Section where the higher ranked team lost:
- #268 over #261
- #206 over #198
All of these games have teams that are very close to each other in the rankings, and every other game played has the higher QRF team winning.
That is why you can't manipulate it with scheduling. If you play all better schools and lose, you will be ranked below them. If you play all less-talented schools and win, you will be above them, but not above better teams you didn't play.
Make your schedule to fit your team! If that means getting ready for the playoffs by winning a lot of games, schedule that way. If that means playing better teams and maybe losing a few games, schedule that way. Either way, the QRF puts you in about the same spot. So schedule to manipulate what is best for your team, not what is best for your seed or QRF number (because in general, the QRF will slot you in the same spot).
Take a look at the data from 8AA Boys, I'll be following them all year to show that Line of Demarcation holding. 8AA is seeding all 16 teams together, so this Section has the most opportunity to follow the most teams at once.
Check back each week to watch that line move (or not)!
| TEAM | Record | Overall QRF | Avg Opp QRF | vs Higher QRF | vs Lower QRF |
| Perham | (2-0) | 28 | 239 | (0-0) | (2-0) |
| Barnesville | (3-0) | 87 | 291 | (0-0) | (3-0) |
| Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton | (4-0) | 122 | 318 | (0-0) | (4-0) |
| Warroad | (4-1) | 165 | 268 | (0-1) | (4-0) |
| Staples-Motley | (2-2) | 166 | 170 | (1-2) | (1-0) |
| East Grand Forks | (2-2) | 198 | 190 | (1-1) | (1-1) |
| Wadena-Deer Creek | (2-2) | 256 | 276 | (0-2) | (2-0) |
| Breckenridge | (1-2) | 266 | 168 | (0-2) | (1-0) |
| Bagley | (2-3) | 268 | 231 | (1-2) | (1-1) |
| Crookston | (1-4) | 281 | 168 | (1-4) | (0-0) |
| Roseau | (1-3) | 327 | 224 | (0-3) | (1-0) |
| Badger/Greenbush-Middle River | (1-3) | 337 | 268 | (0-3) | (1-0) |
| Hawley | (0-5) | 375 | 146 | (0-5) | (0-0) |
| Park Rapids Area | (0-4) | 384 | 175 | (0-4) | (0-0) |
| Frazee | (0-4) | 392 | 190 | (0-4) | (0-0) |
| Pelican Rapids | (0-4) | 392 | 149 | (0-4) | (0-0) |
| (4-37) 9.8% | (21-2) 91.3% |
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Badger/Greenbush-Middle River |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 337 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-3) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (1-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 268 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 186 | Kittson County Central | A | 50 | 60 | L |
| 197 | Stephen-Argyle | A | 60 | 73 | L |
| 295 | Clearbrook-Gonvick | A | 49 | 64 | L |
| 394 | Goodridge/Grygla | A | 65 | 55 | W |
Bagley |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 268 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (1-2) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (1-1) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 231 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 86 | Thief River Falls | AAA | 62 | 78 | L |
| 198 | East Grand Forks | AA | 60 | 61 | L |
| 261 | Win-E-Mac | A | 73 | 66 | W |
| 281 | Crookston | AA | 46 | 58 | L |
| 327 | Roseau | AA | 69 | 47 | W |
Barnesville |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 87 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-0) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (3-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 291 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 198 | East Grand Forks | AA | 61 | 46 | W |
| 266 | Breckenridge | AA | 55 | 52 | W |
| 408 | Ashby | A | 79 | 22 | W |
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Breckenridge |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 266 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-2) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (1-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 168 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 41 | Fergus Falls | AAA | 58 | 83 | L |
| 87 | Barnesville | AA | 52 | 55 | L |
| 375 | Hawley | AA | 76 | 49 | W |
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Crookston |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 281 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (1-4) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (0-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 168 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 71 | Grand Rapids | AAA | 47 | 61 | L |
| 80 | Ada-Borup | A | 47 | 61 | L |
| 158 | Bemidji | AAA | 58 | 67 | L |
| 261 | Win-E-Mac | A | 62 | 67 | L |
| 268 | Bagley | AA | 58 | 46 | W |
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Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 122 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-0) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (4-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 318 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 213 | Lake Park-Audubon | A | 59 | 49 | W |
| 298 | Park Christian | A | 67 | 56 | W |
| 384 | Park Rapids Area | AA | 67 | 29 | W |
| 375 | Hawley | AA | 74 | 57 | W |
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East Grand Forks |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 198 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (1-1) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (1-1) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 190 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 87 | Barnesville | AA | 46 | 61 | L |
| 197 | Stephen-Argyle | A | 61 | 60 | W |
| 206 | Warren-Alvarado-Oslo | A | 36 | 38 | L |
| 268 | Bagley | AA | 61 | 60 | W |
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Frazee |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 392 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-4) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (0-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 190 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 131 | Battle Lake | A | 27 | 62 | L |
| 180 | NCE/U-H | A | 42 | 57 | L |
| 204 | Sebeka | A | 30 | 57 | L |
| 245 | Menahga | A | 33 | 52 | L |
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Hawley |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 375 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-5) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (0-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 146 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 50 | Detroit Lakes | AAA | 28 | 63 | L |
| 80 | Ada-Borup | A | 29 | 61 | L |
| 122 | Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton | AA | 57 | 74 | L |
| 213 | Lake Park-Audubon | A | 48 | 55 | L |
| 266 | Breckenridge | AA | 49 | 76 | L |
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Park Rapids Area |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 384 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-4) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (0-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 175 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 122 | Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton | AA | 29 | 67 | L |
| 166 | Staples-Motley | AA | 49 | 61 | L |
| 168 | Pillager | AA | 44 | 45 | L |
| 245 | Menahga | A | 44 | 48 | L |
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Pelican Rapids |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 392 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-4) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (0-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 149 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 28 | Perham | AA | 30 | 66 | L |
| 131 | Hillcrest Lutheran Academy | A | 41 | 70 | L |
| 180 | NCE/U-H | A | 52 | 63 | L |
| 256 | Wadena-Deer Creek | AA | 67 | 72 | L |
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Perham |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 28 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-0) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (2-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 239 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 85 | Spring Lake Park | AAAA | 59 | 53 | W |
| 392 | Pelican Rapids | AA | 66 | 30 | W |
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Roseau |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 327 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-3) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (1-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 224 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 90 | Northern Freeze | A | 38 | 51 | L |
| 165 | Warroad | AA | 55 | 71 | L |
| 268 | Bagley | AA | 47 | 69 | L |
| 372 | Lake of the Woods | A | 80 | 52 | W |
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Staples-Motley |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 166 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (1-2) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (1-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 170 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 50 | Detroit Lakes | AAA | 64 | 86 | L |
| 91 | Minnewaska Area | AA | 64 | 69 | L |
| 153 | Holdingford | AA | 61 | 59 | W |
| 384 | Park Rapids Area | AA | 61 | 49 | W |
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Wadena-Deer Creek |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 256 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-2) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (2-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 276 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 129 | Long Prairie-Grey Eagle | AA | 53 | 67 | L |
| 247 | Verndale | A | 34 | 65 | L |
| 334 | Bertha-Hewitt | A | 59 | 53 | W |
| 392 | Pelican Rapids | AA | 72 | 67 | W |
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Warroad |
|||||
| QRF Rank | 165 | ||||
| vs Higher QRF | (0-1) | ||||
| vs Lower QRF | (4-0) | ||||
| Avg. Opp QRF | 268 | ||||
| O-QRF | Opponent | Class | Score | ||
| 86 | Thief River Falls | AAA | 37 | 52 | L |
| 206 | Warren-Alvarado-Oslo | A | 62 | 39 | W |
| 327 | Roseau | AA | 71 | 55 | W |
| 350 | Littlefork-Big Falls | A | 85 | 31 | W |
| 372 | Lake of the Woods | A | 82 | 41 | W |
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