Class AA Playoff Scenarios

Section 1AA

Scenarios:

• Caledonia is locked in at #1
• Zumbrota – win and stay in #2 – lose and Chatfield win, Chatfield to #2. 
• If both lose – Lewiston might be able to catch up.  Remember, the QRF is an average of all games played and all of Lewiston’s opponents are playing this week, so it is possible for them to go up in the QRF because their wins vs previous opponents “just got better”.
• 5-8 – win and move up, lose and move down.  If all four lose, expect the order to be: Pine Island | St. Charles | Dover-Eyota | Winona Cotter (but the last two are close).

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Caledonia over Southland
• Lake City over Zumbrota-Mazeppa
• Fillmore Central over Chatfield
• Cannon Falls over Pine Island
• St. Charles over Wabasha-Kellogg
• Goodhue over Winona Cotter
• Plainview-Elgin-Millville over Dover-Eyota

1. Caledonia
2. Zumbrota-Mazeppa
3. Chatfield
4. Lewiston-Altura
5. St. Charles
6. Pine Island
7. Dover-Eyota
8. Winona-Cotter

 Section 2AA

Scenarios:

• Interesting scenario – LeSueur-Henderson plays four AAA teams, W-E-M plays four A teams…this difference has made up for L-H’s lone loss of the season (to an undefeated Norwood-Young America).  If both win this week, and both have difficult games, LeSueur-Henderson will stay number 1.  W-E_M needs L-H to lose and them to win to be #1.  Those two are top 2 locks.
• Triton win and they will be #3.
• Montgomery-Lonsdale win and they are probably #4 as Kenyon and NRHEG both have difficult games.  However if either of them win they will pass M-L.   M-L. lose and Kenyon could pass them regardless of how they do.
• Hayfiled locked in #7

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• LeSueur-Henderson vs Belle Plaine (pickem)
• Waterville-Elysian-Morristown over Martin County West
• Triton over Hayfield
• Montgomery-Lonsdale vs Watertown-Mayer (pickem)
• Byron over Kenyon-Wanamingo
• Maple River over New Richland-H-E-G

1. LeSueur-Henderson
2. Waterville-Elysian-Morristown
3. Triton
4. Kenyon-Wanamingo
5. Montgomery-Lonsdale
6. New Richland-H-E-G
7. Hayfield

 Section 3AA

Scenarios:

• JCC and Blue Earth are too close to call.  Both play winless AA teams this week, so no advantage to either.  It will all depend on how their previous opponents do on Wednesday night to strengthen their already played schedule.
• If Maple River beats NRHEG, they will probably jump into 3^rd past Luverne, who is a big underdog vs Marshall.  If Maple River loses, Luverne will be 3 and Maple River 4.
• TMB is fairly safe in #5, see Pipestone below.
• If all 3 zero win teams (in the QRF eyes, Windom’s win isn’t part of the calculation because of the forfeit) lose – it looks like the order will be Windom | Pipestone | St. James.  Of the three, Pipestone has the best chance to win this week, and it is possible if they do, to pass a 2-6 TMB team.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Jackson County Central over Windom
• Blue Earth Area over St. James
• Marshall over Luverne
• Maple River over New Richland-H-E-G
• Tracy-Milroy-Balaton over Murray County Central
• Madison over Pipestone

1. JCC/BEA
2. BEA/JCC
3. Maple River
4. Luverne
5. Tracy-Milroy-Balaton
6. Windom Area
7. Pipestone Area
8. St. James

 Section 4AA

Scenarios:

• Norwood-Young America is a lock at #1
• Mayer Lutheran a 99% lock at #2
• Maple Lake and HLWW play each other – winner will be #3 unless Edison beats Harding.  An Edison win moves them to 3 and the others slide down one.
• Sibley East can move past HLWW even with a loss since they will lose to a better team this week.
• So if Edison wins, they are #3
• If Edison loses, winner of Maple Lake/HLWW is 3 (Edison is 4 or 5).
• If Maple Lake loses, they slide to 4.
• If HLWW loses, they slide to 6 behind Sibley East.
• Brooklyn Center looks headed for 7.
• St. Agnes appears safely to be at 8
• Humboldt and Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop will not make the playoffs.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Norwood-Young America over Sibley East
• Mayer Lutheran over Jordan
• Maple Lake over Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted
• St. Paul Harding over Minneapolis Edison
• St. Croix Lutheran over Brooklyn Center
• St. Anthony Village over St. Agnes
• Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial over Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop

1. Norwood-Young America
2. Mayer Lutheran
3. Maple Lake
4. Minneapolis Edison
5. Sibley East
6. Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted
7. Brooklyn Center
8. St. Agnes
9. St. Paul Humboldt
10. Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop

 Section 5AA

Scenarios:

• This one seems fairly cut and dried, which makes me nervous posting that.
• All of the games have favorites, no real “pickems” or anything that should sway one way or the other.
• So without much explaining necessary, the “most likely outcome” below would provide the below that seeds.  If any of these don’t go as planned, it will shake things up a bit.

• Most likely outcome (no upsets):
• BOLD over Morris Area
• Eden Valley-Watkins over Rockford
• Paynesville over Lac qui Parle Valley
• Benson over Yellow Medicine East
• Atwater-Cosmos-Grove City over Minnewaska Area

1. BOLD
2. Eden Valley-Watkins
3. Paynesville Area
4. Benson
5. Morris Area/Chokio-Alberta
6. Lac qui Parle Valley
7. Minnewaska Area
8. Yellow Medicine East

Section 6AA

Scenarios:

• Pierz is a solid #1.
• Osakis is interesting – they play a 6-1 Browerville (A) team.  Win and stay number 2…lose and probably stay number 2.
• Breckenridge and USA are favorites and should stay 3-4.
• A Holdingford loss to Pierz opens the door for LPGE to take #5 if they beat OTC.
• Sauk Centre needs losses by Holdingford and LPGE to have hopes of getting to 5, if they beat Melrose they probably can’t get higher than 6.
• Wadena will be travelling to Pierz next Tuesday.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Pierz over Holdingford
• Osakis vs Browerville (pickem)
• Breckenridge over Staples-Motley
• Upsala/Swanville Area over Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg
• Ottertail Central over Long Prairie-Grey Eagle
• Melrose over Sauk Centre
• Royalton over Wadena-Deer Creek

1. Pierz
2. Osakis
3. Breckenridge
4. Upsala/Swanville Area
5. Holdingford
6. Long Prairie-Grey Eagle
7. Sauk Centre
8. Wadena-Deer Creek

Section 7AA

Scenarios:

• MLWR is solid number 1.
• Hinckley-Finlayson about 99% solid at number 2.  Two Harbors/Aitkin would need to win and get A LOT of help.  Virtual lock on number 2.
• If Two Harbors and Aitkin both win, they are in a virtual tie for the third spot.  It will all depend on what their previous opponents do to help enhance their resumes.  Because Aitkin won the head to head, they have the slight edge (they’ll get more points for TH winning this week than Aitkin will get if TH wins).
• If Crosby beats Aitkin, Two Harbors is safe at #3 and Crosby gets 4 with Aitkin 5.
• On to the 6-7-8 winless teams.  If all lose….it favors Rush City, with Duluth Marshall and Eveleth-Gilbert very close in deciding who plays MLWR and who plays Hinckley-Finlayson.  But if all three lose, it’s kind of a crap shoot as to where everyone will end up.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Moose Lake-Willow River over Esko
• Pine City over Hinckley-Finlayson
• Two Harbors over Duluth Marshall
• Aitkin vs Crosby-Ironton (pickem)
• Braham over Rush City
• Hermantown over Eveleth-Gilbert

1. Moose Lake-Willow River
2. Hinckley-Finlayson
3. Aitkin/Two Harbors
4. Two Harbors/Crosby-Ironton
5. Crosby-Ironton/Aitkin
6. Rush City
7. Duluth Marshall
8. Eveleth-Gilbert

Section 8AA

Scenarios:

• Hawley and Barnesville stay 1-2 if they both win.  Barnesville can pass Hawley if the Nuggets lose to Warroad.
• Warroad locked in at number 3.
• DGF should stay ahead of Bagley if both win because Bagley plays 6 Class A schools, and only one of them is above 500.  Neither of their AA opponents are above 500 either.  However if Pelican Rapids upsets DGF, Bagley gets the home game vs DGF.  Both are locked into 4 and 5.
• Frazee and Pelican Rapids have tough but not shocking if they win games.  However UNC plays a two win West Central Area and would sneak ahead of Pelican Rapids with a win, and possibly Frazee too.
• Walker will be on the outside looking in regardless of their outcome vs. Cass Lake.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Hawley over Warroad
• Barnesville over New York Mills
• Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton over Pelican Rapids
• Bagley over Blackduck
• Fertile-Beltrami over Frazee
• West Central Area over United North Central

1. Hawley
2. Barnesville
3. Warroad
4. Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton
5. Bagley
6. Frazee
7. Pelican Rapids
8. United North Central
9. Walker-Hackensack-Akeley