Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Class AAA Playoff Scenarios


Section 2AAA

Scenarios:
  • Holy Family is a fairly safe #1 with a very winnable game vs. Denfeld.
  • Washburn is very safe to get at least the #2
  • Belle Plaine win or Waseca loss and BP is #3.
  • Belle Plaine loss and Waseca win moves Waseca to #3.
  • 5-6-7 is win and move up – lose and possibly fall.  All three win or all three lose and the order should stay Highland Park | Richfield | St. Peter.
  • Jordan locked at #8

Most likely outcome (no upsets):
  • Holy Family Catholic over Jordan
  • Minneapolis Washburn over St. Paul Central
  • Belle Plaine vs LeSueur-Henderson (pickem)
  • Waseca over St. Peter
  • St. Paul Highland Park over Minneapolis Henry
  • Simley over Richfield
  • Mayer Lutheran over Jordan

  1. Holy Family Catholic
  2. Minneapolis Washburn
  3. Belle Plaine/Holy Family Acad
  4. Waseca
  5. St. Paul Highland Park
  6. Richfield
  7. St. Peter
  8. Jordan

 Section 3AAA

Scenarios:
  • Logjam at the top
  • Everything hinges on the Glencoe-Silver Lake/Delano game.  If GSL wins, they will be number 1.  If they lose and both Fairmont and Monte win, GSL falls to 3.  Main reason is GSL’s 6 wins are over teams either 2-5 or 3-4.  Nobody over .500.  These three will be 1-2-3 in some order.
  • Logjam in the middle
    • AND everybody except New Ulm is a pickem game.
    • If Dassel beats Annandale, they will be fighting with the Redwood Valley/Worthington winner to host the 4-5 matchup.
    • Watertown-Mayer win could push them up to as high as 6 depending on who the other losers are.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):
  • Fairmont over New Ulm
  • Glencoe-Silver Lake vs Delano (pickem)
  • Montevideo over Minneota/Lincoln HI
  • Dassel-Cokato over Annandale
  • Worthington vs Redwood Valley (pickem)
  • Watertown-Mayer over Montgomery-Lonsdale

  1. Fairmont/Glencoe-Silver Lake
  2. Montevideo/Fairmont
  3. Glencoe-Silver Lake/Montevideo
  4. Dassel-Cokato
  5. Worthington/Redwood Valley
  6. Worthington/Redwood Valley/Watertown-Mayer
  7. Worthington/Redwood Valley/Watertown-Mayer
  8. New Ulm


Section 4AAA

Scenarios:
  • St. Croix Lutheran is safe at #1
  • St. Anthony Village should be ok at #2.  St. Paul Johnson drew Mlps Southwest in the Twin Cities game – beating a 4 win AAAAA team is worth quite a bit, but it doesn’t look like it will be quite enough to push past St. Anthony.
  • They can push past Concordia into 3rd, however.  But if Johnson loses to Southwest they are more than likely headed to the 4 seed.
  • If Minnehaha beats DeLaSalle they can get past a losing Johnson into 4th, probably not catch Concordia but it is fairly close.
  • New Life is safe at 6, Como Park at 7 and SPA/MPA at 8

Most likely outcome (no upsets):
  • St. Croix Lutheran over Brooklyn Center
  • St. Anthony Village over St. Agnes
  • Concordia Academy over New Life Academy
  • Minneapolis Southwest over St. Paul Johnson
  • DeLaSalle over Minnehaha Academy
  • St. Paul Como Park over Minneapolis North
  • Providence Academy over SPA/MPA

  1. St. Croix Lutheran
  2. St. Anthony Village
  3. Concordia Academy-Roseville
  4. St. Paul Johnson
  5. Minnehaha Academy
  6. New Life Academy
  7. St. Paul Como Park
  8. St. Paul Academy/Mounds Park Academy


Section 5AAA

Scenarios:
  • DeLaSalle is #1
  • Providence Academy is #2
  • Breck/Blake/Rockford/Henry
  • Breck win and they are #3 – Rockford/Henry can move past Blake if they win.
  • Blake win, and Rockford/Henry win – all four teams could be 3-4-5-6. (and will play each other in some form in the first round).
  • Columbia Heights is locked in at #7.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):
  • DeLaSalle over Minnehaha Academy
  • Providence Academy over SPA/MPA
  • Breck over Blake
  • Eden Valley-Watkins over Rockford
  • St. Paul Highland Park over Minneapolis Henry

  1. DeLaSalle
  2. Providence Academy
  3. Breck
  4. Blake
  5. Rockford
  6. Minneapolis Henry
  7. Columbia Heights
 
Section 6AAA

Scenarios:
  • A lot of even games this week, which is making the scenarios more difficult to decipher.
  • St. Cloud Cathedral can pass Zimmerman if they both win because Zimmerman is playing a zero win team and Cathedral is playing a 6-win AAAA team.  But it will be close.
  • Winner of NLS and Albany will be ahead of the other one, and could get close to/pass Cathedral if they lose to Rocori.
  • Loser of NLS/Albany needs to be worried about getting passed by Foley.
  • Litchfield is 6 with a win.
  • Annandale can slide into 6 with a win and Litchfield loss….Melrose is locked into 8.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):
  • Zimmerman over Princeton
  • St. Cloud Cathedral vs Rocori (pickem)
  • New London-Spicer vs Albany (pickem)
  • Foley over Mora
  • Litchfield over Orono
  • Annandale vs Dassel-Cokato (pickem)
  • Melrose vs Sauk Centre (pickem)

  1. Too many pickems to give an opinion on the final results
 
Section 7AAA

Scenarios:
  • With a win, Greenway should stay in number 1
  • With a win, Pine City should stay in number 2
  • Proctor/Virginia winner should be number 3
  • Proctor/Virginia loser should be number 4, unless Esko or Mora win.
  • Esko and Mora lose, Esko at 5, Mora and Cloquet close for 6-7 if Cloquet wins.
  • Cloquet/International Falls need to win or hope Milaca loses, Milaca win and they will probably make it in.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):
  • Greenway over International Falls
  • Pine City over Hinckley-Finlayson
  • Proctor vs  Virginia (pickem)
  • Moose Lake-Willow River over Esko
  • Foley over Mora
  • Cloquet over Hibbing
  • Little Falls over Milaca

  1. Greenway
  2. Pine City
  3. Proctor/Virginia
  4. Virginia/Proctor
  5. Esko
  6. Mora
  7. Cloquet
  8. International Falls
  9. Milaca

Section 8AAA

Scenarios:
  • This is another Section where teams are beating each other which makes them close together in the standings.
  • Pequot Lakes wins and they are #1
  • Thief River Falls wins and a logjam is created with PL/TRF and Perham.  Perham win over EGF appears to give them a slight edge.  Too close to call.  These three teams will be 1-2-3 no matter what.
  • If EGF can beat Perham, they will lock up #4.  If not, they need Roseau to beat Park Rapids to get #4.
  • Park Rapids win over Pequot Lakes in week 4 is holding them up high in the QRF.  If they beat Roseau they will be 4 will EGF loss, 5 with EGF win.
  • Roseau win pushes them ahead of Crookston, as Crookston will be an underdog to Detroit Lakes.
  • Staples needs help to get out of #8.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):
  • Pequot Lakes vs Thief River Falls (pickem)
  • Perham over East Grand Forks
  • Park Rapids vs Roseau (pickem)
  • Detroit Lakes over Crookston
  • Breckenridge over Staples-Motley

  1. PL/TRF/Perham
  2. PL/TRF/Perham
  3. PL/TRF/Perham
  4. East Grand Forks
  5. Park Rapids Area
  6. Roseau
  7. Crookston
  8. Staples-Motley

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