Class AAAA Playoff Scenarios

Section 1AAAA

Scenarios:

• #1 Basically comes down to Red Wing vs. Chanhassen.  If Red Wing wins, they will be #1.  If Red Wing loses and Faribault wins, Faribault will be #1.  If both lose, Red Wing will still be #1 because their strength of schedule will be better after this week.
• Northfield is #3 with a win, but not probable against Shakopee.  That opens the door for Winona and/or New Prague to move up with wins.
• Albert Lea vs. Austin – winner COULD get all the way to four.  It is possible for this scenario:
• Austin over Albert Lea
• Faribault over Winona
• Farmington over New Prague
• This would leave 4 teams at 1-6 with any of them having a chance TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Faribault over Winona
• Red Wing over Chanhassen
• Shakopee over Northfield
• Farmington over New Prague
• Albert Lea over Austin (pickem)

1. Red Wing
2. Faribault
3. Northfield
4. Winona
5. Albert Lea
6. New Prague
7. Austin

 

Section 2AAAA

Scenarios:

• Mankato West seems very solid in the number 1 spot, even with a loss and Hutch or Marshall winning, it doesn’t look like they can be passed.  The real question is for number two.
• In Hutch’s favor – they’ve played bigger schools, so when those schools win they get more points than if Marshall’s previous opponent’s win.
• In Marshall’s favor – they’ve mostly played teams that are winning – usually guaranteed wins from Fairmont and JCC.
• Since both teams should win, it’s going to come down to their previous opponent’s…I’m giving a SLIGHT edge to Hutchinson, but there is a real scenario where this could be a tie.
• Waconia has a decent sized lead and will be the favorite against Mound-Westonka (1-6), so they should be penciled in heavy lead as the 4.
• Mankato East is a big underdog against West, so the 5-6 seeds will depend on how Willmar does.  Win and they go to Waconia….lose and the go to Marshall/Hutch.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Mankato West over Mankato East
• Hutchinson over Grand Rapids
• Marshall over Luverne
• Waconia over Mound-Westonka
• Willmar over Fergus Falls (actually a pickem, but will take Willmar since this is their Section)

1. Mankato West
2. Hutchinson
3. Marshall
4. Waconia
5. Willmar
6. Mankato East

NOTE ADDED 3PM 10/18

Hutchinson is #2 if:
Glencoe, Orono, Fairmont, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Litchfield, Fairmont, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Orono, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Litchfield, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Glencoe, Orono, Fairmont, Madison win
Glencoe, Litchfield, Fairmont, Madison win
Glencoe, Orono, New Ulm, Madison win
Glencoe, Litchfield, New Ulm, Madison win
Delano, Orono, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Delano, Litchfield, New Ulm, Pipestone win
Delano, Orono, Fairmont, Madison win
Delano, Litchfield, Fairmont, Madison win
Delano, Orono, New Ulm, Madison win
Delano, Litchfield, New Ulm, Madison win

Marshall is #2 if:
Delano, Litchfield, Fairmont, Pipestone win

There is a tie if:
Delano, Orono, Fairmont, Pipestone win

 

 Section 3AAAA

Scenarios:

• St. Thomas safe at #1.
• South St. Paul plays a much tougher opponent this week than Holy Angels, and has a chance to make up the points.  If both win, it will be close – but Holy Angel s still has a SLIGHT lead.  Will depend on previous opponent’s.
• Simley and St. Louis Park have winnable games – SLP is in the driver’s seat though.  Both win or both lose and SLP should be #4.  But if SLP loses and Simley wins, Simley will be 4.
• Chaska and Henry Sibley big underdogs this week – will probably stay at 6 & 7 respectively.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• St. Thomas Academy over Henry Sibley
• Holy Angels over Chaska
• South St. Paul over Tartan
• Simley over Richfield
• Irondale over St. Louis Park

1. St. Thomas Academy
2. Holy Angels
3. South St. Paul
4. Simley
5. St. Louis Park
6. Chaska
7. Henry Sibley

 

Section 4AAAA

Scenarios:

• Winner of Mahtomedi/Hill-Murray will be #1
• If Mahtomedi wins, Central could pass H-M with a win over Washburn.
• Chisago Lakes win and they are 4, lose and Harding win will make it close.
• North Branch locked in 6.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Mahtomedi over Hill-Murray
• St. Paul Central over Minneapolis Washburn
• Benilde-St. Margaret’s over Chisago Lakes Area
• St. Paul Harding over Minneapolis Edison
• Totino-Grace over North Branch

1. Mahtomedi
2. Hill-Murray
3. St. Paul Central
4. Chisago Lakes Area
5. St. Paul Harding
6. North Branch

 

Section 5AAAA

Scenarios:

• Rogers appears to be safe in #1, only loss is to 6-1 Elk River.
• Delano is 7-0, but have not beaten a team with a winning record.  They can change that this week against Glencoe-Silver Lake, but it may be too little too late.  They appear headed to a #2 seed.
• Becker win over Big Lake solidifies #3, and Monticello 4.
• Big Lake over Becker would move Monticello into #3 with a win, Becker at 4.
• Doesn’t look like Big Lake can catch Becker, could catch Monticello if they lose.
• Princeton is in 6^th.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Rogers over Cambridge-Isanti
• Delano over Glencoe-Silver Lake
• Becker over Big Lake
• Monticello over Buffalo
• Zimmerman over Princeton

1. Rogers
2. Delano
3. Becker
4. Monticello
5. Big Lake
6. Princeton

Section 7AAAA

Scenarios:

• Bemidji locked at #1, Hermantown at #2
• Not much change expected in this Section, unless Grand Rapids pulls an upset and/or Detroit Lakes gets upset.  More than likely these 6 seeds will stay the same.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Bemidji over Sartell-St. Stephen
• Hermantown over Eveleth-Gilbert
• Detroit Lakes over Crookston
• Hutchinson over Grand Rapids
• Holy Family Catholic over Duluth Denfeld
• Hibbing vs Cloquet (pickem)

1. Bemidji
2. Hermantown
3. Detroit Lakes
4. Grand Rapids
5. Duluth Denfeld
6. Hibbing

 Section 8AAAA

Scenarios:

• Rocori locked at #1, Fergus Falls is likely at #2 unless Sartell upsets Bemidji.
• 3-6 is up in the air – although Sartell and Sauk Rapids are underdogs, while Alexandria and Little Falls are probably pickem.  Too many scenarios/possibilities.  If Little Falls wins and the others lose, Little Falls could jump up to #4.

Most likely outcome (no upsets):

• Rocori over St. Cloud Cathedral (pickem)
• Fergus Falls over Willmar (pickem)
• Bemidji over Sartell-St. Stephen
• Brainerd over Sauk Rapids-Rice
• Moorhead over Alexandria
• Little Falls over Milaca
• St. Cloud Tech over St. Cloud Apollo

1. Rocori
2. Fergus Falls
3. Sartell-St. Stephen
4. Sauk Rapids-Rice
5. Little Falls
6. Alexandria
7. St. Cloud Apollo